Permian Case - 2016 CFAI Mock (PM)

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Answer is C per the exam.

Aren’t B and C both correct? Contango is negative roll yield and Backwardation (futures price < spot) is positive roll yield.

Have errata been posted yet?

C jumped out to me as right in the moment. I’d never heard “negative roll return”, but the answer even uses that language.

I don’t see why you’re wrong.

Anybody else? I’m about to boost my mock score up a point :wink:

I was just going the exact same question. I put B also. Maybe something in the chart they posted, Exhibit 3, shows that the Ag Index isn’t in contango? That is my only idea.

Let me know because I want to add 1 more correct question to my score too.

Does the question say from who’s perspective long or short?

You’re right.

Future return = Spot + roll

Agriculture Future return = 0.74% Spot = 4.6% Threrefore not in contago

Energy Future return = 5.32% Spot = 7.87% Backwardation

The dirty tricks in this exam are astounding.

This question is so tricky.

sorry how did you get this?

if i use your formula above and what i think you mean, then energy future return = 7.87 (spot) + 2.55 (roll) which would mean that future > spot and the market is in contango - not backwardation,

have i misunderstood?