FIVE
Bought it about a month ago (entry @ ~$74)… they reported solid earnings/guidance yesterday after market close and trading up 20%+ today. May want to wait for a better entry but I think this is a winner long-term. Relatively cheap growth… sitting @ ~39x forward P/E with 24% 4-yr rev CAGR and ~34% 4-yr EPS CAGR. Could expand store base by ~4x according to some analysts with a payback period for each store of only ~ 8 months. No debt. Worth putting on your watch list at least imo.
never looked at it before today because its a mid cap. and most small cos have shitty results. but this is a diamon in the rough.
excellent company. and excellent pick. has a long run rate. but this is definitely in early stages and they are killin it. every new store they build has a payback period of less than 1 year 150% ROI first year (DAFUQ) but they built that shit at the profitable areas not the shitty midwest which is going ot be there go to sooner or later (but no sign of this yet) 600 stores (growin it at 20% per year), they have the potential to build 2500 before shit slows down. 1st year performance over the years is steady at 2 mil a pop and the ebitda margins are bomb diggity at 25%. same store sales are ok.
cons. i have never heard of them (could actually be a good thing) its a discount store for young people. the stock is super expensive. its about a 25x multiple at 5b and 200m ebitda., lets assume best case scenario for each new store. 500k aditional ebitda per store. 1900 potential stores. thats about 950m. or 1.2b ebitda to its current valuation of 5b. thats pretty cheap at 4x and should prolly trade around 10x or 12b. growing store base at 20% that’ll take them about 8 years. at current prices thats like a 12 percent appreciation per year. a huge con is they sell to a younger group which is pretty faddy. but its a discounter which is everybody’s wet dream in the space.
thx for sharing. adding to list.
STZ is also a really good GARP name. Been in the stock since ~$156… I think there’s still a lot of room for growth. Biggest idiosyncratic risk at this point (in my opinion) is US trade tensions with Mexico escalating and NAFTA being terminated, but I believe they’ve been preparing for that scenario since Trump got elected.
STZ is quality
https://nypost.com/2018/06/22/kraft-interested-in-buying-campbell-soup/
BRK owned Kraft Heinz interested in Campbell Soup
Add this to my calls on Joy Global (bought by Komatsu within 6 mos) amd ERJ (talks wrapping up with Boeing). I’m in the wrong business, should be doing merger arb.
haha. was about to post that link too. saw it on jpm early look.
Cha ching! Up 81.4% to $32.13. I think I’ll sell now.
Great pick man. Don’t forget to let the winners ride
He can’t. It was acquired
True. I really wasn’t surprised by it, though. Given their circumstances, you expected an aquisition. I just didn’t expect UNFI to do it given their current exposure to Whole Foods.
I’m not too sure if this acquisition by UNFI was a good one, as they now have too much exposure with Whole Foods- Whole Foods represents 30% of sales. If Amazon decides to self-distribute or diversify its supply needs longer term, then UNFI could really be hurt. United Natural Foods also has to worry about a number of recent acquisitions by Supervalu that have not been fully integrated and the synergies have not been fully realized. With EBITDA in decline at both companies, there is a lot of work that will be required… UNFI definitely paid a premium that’s hard to be enthusiastic about…
nah good job. lots of people were on it for acquisition play. it played off! co’s a pos.
GE going < $10?
ran across the Pershing newsletter. apparently mgmt repurchased 18% of the shares the last 2 months!!!?!?!?!!?
loeb just dropped more on it
SIG doing better than expected
TLRY jeez… That stock is up to $83.10 from $25.35 a month ago. I guess the cannabis stocks are really starting to take off…
Or they took off already and are starting to crash…
But it is tempting which is why I bought two already. We’ll see what happens at the end of the year.
TLRY listed on NASDAQ, so liquidity is driving the stock to a large extent. Most of these stocks trade OTC in the US. I’m waiting for the next NASDAQ listing to check it out.
Another big earnings beat… MOONing
WTF. This thing is up to 232.48… That’s 910% higher than the IPO price. This thing has to pop soon.