I mean, these aren’t fire sale prices so if you’re inclined to wait, that would make sense, I tend to be early. But I feel these prices are pretty good. Additionally, I think China is making moves to increase stimulus as it exits this seasonally restrained part of the year with curtailed construction and manufacturing through winter on pollution grounds. I think what’s increasingly baked in are concerns over a China hard landing or bumpy slow down, which I don’t think is a base case. I think we’re well past global minor slowdown levels and there are areas like Brazil that are showing signs of recovery. I think we’re entering a new era where a belated consumer lead recovery will bring a second wind.
Seriously, I’ve never traded stocks.
last time china injected this much stimulus was March 2016, one month after market bottom at the time. might bode well for the December 2018 lows being the lows for now.
Ok, I’ll admit that one was luck, but oh man. Still recommend a buy though, PT is ~$20 although I might wait until some of this current technical fades.
Visit www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets and ask for their advice. Be sure to take their advice seriously. They basically print money over there.
thats the dumbest thread ive seen in a while
Makes sense, thanks.
From Black Swan
I mean, these aren’t fire sale prices so if you’re inclined to wait, that would make sense, I tend to be early. But I feel these prices are pretty good. Additionally, I think China is making moves to increase stimulus as it exits this seasonally restrained part of the year with curtailed construction and manufacturing through winter on pollution grounds. I think what’s increasingly baked in are concerns over a China hard landing or bumpy slow down, which I don’t think is a base case. I think we’re well past global minor slowdown levels and there are areas like Brazil that are showing signs of recovery. I think we’re entering a new era where a belated consumer lead recovery will bring a second wind.
JohnyMac
Black Swan thanks for that background so any rebound should be quite elastic in terms of profitability and value…I may wait a bit on acting on that I find the whole picture very muddled at this point
Just went from 80% invested in equities (70/30 US and exUS) to 20 % invested in equities (what remains is high dividend blue chip etfs) as I am currently very spooked about what the next 6 to 12 months holds. While I believe in the buy and hold inevitability of superior returns in stocks if there is a possibility of bypassing substantial downside performance I love what that can do as well to returns over time.
Not suggesting that I or anyone can time the market but just need to catch my breath on the sidelines for a bit and see what the apparent cyclical and fiscal/monetary and slowing growth state and global dysfunction is about to bring.
Now to find someplace to park the money 
Leaning toward liquid floating rate debt debt instruments.
Any thoughts on mining stocks/ commodities, that are to remain strong through the cycle? Watching Jupiter mining jms.ax at the moment. Strong projected dividend yield, strong cost based performance, well above b/e and zero debt. Strong correlation with the commodity prices / sentiment. They held an public offering last year at 40ct after being taken of the market for a while, now well down to 25 ct. Imo a fair risk reward investment in which the firm projects the asset i.e. the mine to have a working life of 100 ys.
Shoot it.
I personally don’t touch those sort of things and I don’t know how you can relate this company with “strong through the cycle”. They paid two dividends in seven years, don’t appear to have any scheduled and have an erratic price history and weak disclosures. I’m not saying it is a terrible investment, I’m just saying it’s a microcap that I know very little about (I don’t do microcaps) and that it looks like a terrible investment, again, knowing nothing about it other than high level stats.
I do agree, I meant to phrase that differently. That sentence did not refer specifically to this stock, but was a more general remark, to gauge what the general opinion is w.r.t. commodities stocks further in the cycle, especially mining. Regarding the dividend, thats correct though they have been private for some period and have now been relisted. Managements has committed on paying the full income from their 50% equity ownership to shareholders in coming years. The unilateral disclosure that you mention is also the matter that bothers me… The thing cheering me up is the fact that dutch pension funds own a 13% stake in the firm.
I don’t mind commodity stocks late cycle, I think they can be a good investment. I think late cycle though it pays to own the high quality, low leverage, low cost base names (RIO, BHP, AAL (Anglo), NEM, GLEN)… those sorts of things.
Actually, instead of the names I just listed, I’d look at the ones I mentioned earlier in this thread.
MLA,
im pretty upset you didnt hook us up with the intel on this baby.
I’m staying clear of ATVI. Their player base got hammered due to Fortnite, and other rivals like league of legends and DotA2 consistently get higher game volumes than ATVI’s stale products (WoW, Diablo). Overwatch is doing okay, but not enough. They’ll need to come up with something groundbreaking like RPGs were 20 years ago. Plus, it’s a high beta stock. Without any momentum and market-wide headwind, it might set camp in the mid-high $30s before a longer term recovery (which I believe can only come with better games).
Perma-short, to emerge in a few years when a big correction finally happens just to say I told you so.
ea just came up apex legends and it is growing way faster than tencent’s epic games’ fortnite, when compared by their release dates. feb 4 2019 vs july 25, 2017. within 7 days apex had 25m players vs 1m for fornite. there are curently 200m fornite players. so its a long way for them still to be comparable.
ea is the maker of your sports games like fifa/nba live/ madden, sims, battlefield, need for speed, battle front.
currently ea trades at 18x cash flow/net income. net cash pos of 4b. ea has been profitable since 2012 but i would actually just focus on 2015 cuz 2012 to 2014 were really shitty years. It’s even worse from 2006 to 2011, they had huge losses. jana partners and duquesene just sold out of them too as of 12/31/18.
tencent’s trades at 27/32x. neutral net cash. obvi expensive, but they are a growing profitable cash cow since inception around 2010. and this is not just on a yoy basis, but qoq. about 32% of rev is from online games vs 60% in 2015. 23% in social. 20% in online ads. and 25% in others. they also have investmentsd in other cos prolyl worth 50b repping about 15% of takeover value.
https://www.businessinsider.com/apex-legends-player-count-2019-2
i thought the product in question was far too cool for AF
Dropped $10K in to PG&E Corp. about a month ago. I honestly got really lucky as it was probably the riskiest play I’ve ever done.