AAPL has beta > 1 which MSFT/NKE et al do not. ultimately if AAPL screw up a couple of products they’re finished. MSFT have already been there 
^ finished? what does that mean?
…like share price goes to a dollar y2k era.
I don’t think you actually believe that. To say it will fall in value substantially for some reason or other is a reasonable claim if there’s research out there to back it up, but a 1$ per share valuation would require a pretty severe set of problems, far greater than just launching a couple bad products, and I think even the most extreme bears on the stock would agree with that. What’s your 1 year target range with say, a 75% confidence interval from low to high?I’m thinking 85 to 150.
If you look at the chart it was trading at about $80 as recently as June 2014… its essentially THE SAME COMPANY, nothing has materially changed… The cash and dividend can support this stock for years to come but it could be a case of where the stock goes nowhere
As usual lots of questionable analyses which don’t fit the data and defy logic:
A) “Nothing has changed since 2014”. We found out that AAPL is making more money than anyone on the planet. We found they are selling massive phones all over Asia, and they aren’t anywhere near done addressing all the potential demand. We found they rule like 90% of smart phone profits. They launched multiple new products.
B) “Because AAPL has a beta > 1, if they make a misstep they are done”. Really?
There is nothing to drive the stock higher in the short term; it’s August, things are slow, rate hike coming. We could see a new low if the market as a whole gets irrational with the 25bps hike, that’s when we buy more (anything below $110 is over-the-top mispricing). Without any surprise announcements, Q3 earnings and holiday earnings are the next events.
^^ “We found out this or that”… Consensus estimates have been projecting 15%+ annual EPS growth through 2016 for years… It was never a surprise that iPhone 6 was a huge success. The stock is so well covered, sell side knows how many rolls of toilet paper the company is ordering at head quarters… There are no surprises here… Stock was trading at $105 in January and I think it can go lower. The true beta of the stock should be 1… When risk is on it will go higher. The actual earnings releases mean nothing… Tracking data from suppliers,/ retailer leave little mystery on a quarterly basis.
LOL, okay. Then why the big surprise and adjustment back when Jan results came out?
If you read AnalystForum, including this thread, you will see it WAS a surprise. It wasn’t a surprise to me, but we had people on here saying “big phone, who wants that?”.
Just bought some more at $106, wacky low price.
Fact is iPhone will keep selling just fine in China, not sure the market “logic” causing this price.
if this is wacky low, you may be surprised that AAPL will probably keep falling if the market keeps falling. there are hundreds of better stocks to buy at the moment which are down far more than 20% from their highs. imo.
Naw, AAPL @ 12.3 P/E, with holidays not that far away, is the best thing going.
I bought some earlier this afternoon too, $106 and change. Nasty week, portfolio took the worst beating I’ve ever seen.
you clearly don’t watch many U.S. stocks…
Well yeah, it’s mostly overvalued crap with no future.
Craziest shit ever, low 92 then now at 108, in around 3 hours!!!
^^ Totally nuts, and now heading back down, as VIX heads 40+ again…
People continually ignore one major thing with AAPL. Revenue and earnings are not just about Q, there’s a very important P in there as well that never gets talked about. When you’re losing market share those margins may come under pressure, and that is where the stock could really get hit.
I think the “OMG China slowdown, thus sales will go down!” logic will be wrong. iPhones are not discretionary, they are mandatory!
i like the way everytime this thread is bumped I go and check how NKE is doing.