Baltic Dry Index

[Black_Swan]

@Black_Swan

Fair enough, I’m not saying it’s going to zero, just that I feel there’s more room in these commodity / China exposed sectors for significant troughing in the cycle. The names may be at 30 year lows, but to me that’s just looking at a chart and buying off of price action. You could argue that a contrarian value investor would also be looking at the fundamentals (including the macro environment), which I don’t believe support the industry yet (although my outlook may be more bearish than most).

I think there’s going to be some phenomenal buys in 2018-2020, I just would want to wait for the right time. Both because I don’t want money sitting dormant for three years without generating a strong return, and due to the intermediary downside potential.

Bump. Call me Nostradamus, I’m a genius.

[Black_Swan]

@Black_Swan

I feel like these are all arguments that could have been used to buy us blue chip airlines over the past few decades

Still not calling DSX a buy. With FCF of -$132M in FY15 and $149M in cash at 1Q16, things are looking dicey. My comment about the airline industry may hold true here as well. The situation at DSX isn’t too far behind either.

[Black_Swan]

@guestuser

Bought some SBLK at the absolute lows. Literally bottom ticked it at $2.57. Long DSX too. How can the value of ships swing 30% in a week? UHHH GUYS, neither of these are going BK and Oaktree is long the world at higher prices with control of the company, who was selling in the $2.50s? You’re fired.

Hope you sold somewhere along the line. The guy selling at $2.50 may have messed up on the timing but its fallen 84% to $2.66 from July 17th when we discussed. FY15 FCF -489M and cash of $208M, can’t see this ending really well.

[BankThatDank]

^^ I know right. I only check in on one of these companies from time to time, DRYS, and it’s not looking good to say the least. Continued share issuances, scaling back the business- but they still having problems with debt, and the share price acting like a dead carcass ever since it crossed back under a buck (pre all the reverse share splits). No thank you. I don’t want to catch a falling knife that’s been dropped off a skyscrapper. Just staying afloat would be a major victory for them.