Agreed! But what BoE did in 90s was just outrageous - changing IR multiple times in a day is bound to make others smell blood and go all in.
what sort of black swan event do you expect for end 2016/early 2017?
Oil was a great investment a few months ago, metals have been moving quite a bit as well. I want to be ready for the next trade -
The fed will possibly be reducing rates (definitely slowing down raising them), this could have many effects - gold already hit $1300
Brexit - Europe’s economy has struggled quite a bit the past few years. If they lose Britain, I imagine this would have a massive effect on the local economy.
If Britain exits, wouldn’t this lead to Germany exiting?
China - dumping metal at low prices, massive capacity for smelters/refineries (will this be good or bad for their economy?), if China receives sanctions from countries they may have a big issue on their hands.
USA elections - Trump wins…what happens. I think volatility close to the election (if polls are close) will be at an alltime high.
Yeah, I’ve been preparing volatility trading strategies for the US election. Any realistic chance of Trump winning will send the whole world hedging. And Brexit shows this sort of retarded decision making by the masses could happen. If Trump actually wins it’s all over, NOBODY knows what that maniac will do, that means RISK, and that means everything DOWN.
…well except gold and whatever, those guys will get rich.
You guys believe way too much hype. The President actually can’t do much, especially when both parties oppose him. Trump winning will be a great buying opportunity.
The world is on the brink, end of a cycle, everywhere sucks, monetary policy exhasted everywhere, just need Trump to push it over…
China would freak, hedge, massive market disturbances, badwill, trade disturbed, economic warfare, 150% chance of global recession, bad bad things.
^ Didnt you say that like 6 months ago before you walked away from AF with your tail between your legs?
^ I don’t remember that happening that way.