Can i pass- PM-70% , AM-50-55%?

CFA Level III
#51

I am very sure that 3/6 gets counted in the <50 bracket … coz the result email clearly indicates this bracket as =<50.

I agree that 40/60/80 method can be fine tuned … but my goal was not to deduce the actual MPS as accurately as possible … rather i just wanted to get a sense of the combinations of AM/PM that pass/fail.

Also i had done this number crunching sometime in Dec/Jan … as i realised that the ease of scoring in AM and PM is very different and wanted to set targets for each … i had concluded that 55-60% in AM and 70-75% in PM should see you through

#52

That is interesting. I never noticed that myself (probably too happy celebrating?). Incidentally, do the AM / PM combination matter? I was under the impression that you will likely pass / fail if your aggregated percentages exceeds / falls short of the minimum passing score (with a small Ethics adjustment there)?

#53

You are right … AM & PM are weighed equally and the MPS is based on the aggregate score.

What i realised after looking at some of the score matrices of last year’s Level 3 results (and other years too) was that there is a noticable difference between AM & PM scores of most candidates … with PM generally being higher than AM … this is evident from the difference of ~17% between median AM & PM scores

I was just trying to get a sense to this difference …

#54

After the exam all people around me were really confident and told me ahh it was easy. Think I did not it. Lost around 15 18 points in the morning session due to skipping some small questons or not answering complete and making mistakes and already know around 5 mistakes (questions) in the pm session.

#55

how can someone predict their score with a decent confidence margin (i.e. 90%+)??? do you guys remember every single question, or most of them??? i find it laughable when i see someone saying i did 50-55% in the AM and 70-75% in the PM. there’s a 95% chance your actual score is outside those margins…

what confidence do you guys have in your “scores?” i ask that honestly, for my curiosity…

based on what i remember (like half of the test), what i did well and what mistakes i made, i am 95% certain i got above 70% on the AM and above 45% on the PM…. however, i am 75% confident I got above an 80% on the AM and above 60% on the PM. i can’t really put a cap on my “estimate” as, who knows, maybe i got an 85% on the AM and half the guesses i made were correct and got a 70% on the PM… highly unlikely.

out of the roughly 40-50 questions/parts in the AM, i only left 3 parts blank (about 11-12 pts total) as i circled to come back to and didnt have time. about 30 questions in the AM i am positive i got 99% of the points available, which leaves about 10 questions or so that i felt decent about my answer, felt i answered what was asked, but through the quick pace maybe i missed something, a trick, or didn’t answer completely what they are looking for - i’m assuming i got 50% of the pts awarded for those.

out of the 60 PM questions, i only remember about half of the questions. from the 30 or so i remember, I know i got 20 questions correct, and i know i got about 10 incorrect. the remaining 30 i simply just don’t recall. if i got half of those correct that leaves me at an overall avg of 58.5% for the PM section…. maybe i got more right, maybe less, who knows.

just curious what you guys are assessing in coming up with your “estimated” scores?? my confidence band is pretty wide. i’m certain i got between a 65-85% on the AM, and a 45-65% on the PM. but that does nothing for me in easing my tension or giving me a better idea of my score or likelihood of passing. if it’s toward the lower end, i’ll fail miserably… towards the higher end, i’ll obviously pass… in the middle, i’m on the bubble.

suggestions?

#56

Suggestion - estimating your score is pointless. Ride out the wait and find out for sure on August 12th.

#57

junior if it makes u feel any better thats pretty much how i feel too… feels like 65 ish which means were at the mercy of the mps

#58

This synopsis perfectly encapsulates my feelings after the test. I derive my confidence level by comparing how I feel after I complete a test question vs how I feel after completing a mock. If I was able to answer a question confidently, completely, and with a high degree of certainty, I’ll probably wind up getting that question right at least 7 out of 10 times. I assume that at best I get half of my educated guesses correct, and I assume that if I had a high degree of uncertainty I got it wrong. For me that equates to on the bubble.

#59

a comforting factor is that on an average people have left 15 marks in AM

#60

also rem 1 q in PM = 3 marks

so even 2-3 correct q can balance a big 9-10 marks AM q

#61

55+ marks for me T.T

#62

Me, too. I failed at band 10. you can understand my feelings :v

#63

I really hope most of the peope who worked hard towards the exam will pass the exam! I understand that people want to get some confidence or assurance of the result to pass this 2-month time.

By reading a lot of posts on this forum and other CFA forums, I think overall over 70% should be safe and can assume you can pass. The thing is that, you might have guessed wrong. Your final exam mark might be much lower, much higher or about right / than what’s in your mind now.

Having said that, again, I think overall over 70% should be a pass score.

Good luck! It will be a very difficult 2-month.

#64

I don’t really remember any of the questions, and it has not passed even 2 months…

#65

Does anybody have the estimations for the past years’ MPS?

#66

I have started a new thread “MPS by Linear Discriminant analysis.” See that thread and my blog www.resourcetepee.com – look for “CFA Level 3 MPS” under “free personal finance calculators”.

As a default in this calculator I have the estimated scores in the beginning of this forum thread of 55% in AM and 70% in PM. My calculator estimates that someone with this score is likely to Pass and is estimated to be 63.3 percentile amongst level 3 candidates (per 2013 results you only need to be about 51 percentile to pass). Try your own estimated scores. The website describes limitations of the analysis. Should be an interesting and entertaining exercise even if 2014 results are very different and the calculator is off the mark.

#67

Levfings

I am in the same boat with you

does it mean a fail if I messed up with the PM session but did all right in the AM

seems everyone here nailed PM with flying scores

is there anyone who passed but did better in AM than in PM?

#68

I believe I did way better in the morning than the afternoon.

#69

Three posts back I refer to an analysis. This analysis supports a greater likelihood of a pass with higher scores in PM. The model I derive is that a pass may be likely if

0.154*(pm score) + 0.115*(am score) - 16.5 >= 0

The model places a greater weight on the pm score. This is because the pm score counts twice in the absence of a three parameter model including ethics scores. A high pm score is being used as a surrogate for ethics in the two factor model due to the likely correlation of the total pm score to the ethics score. (Which is 20% of the total pm score)

However doing better on am then pm is definitely not too much of a concern if you did well on the pm ethics. The level 3 exam would be more balanced if there were some am ethics too.But I wouldn’t advocate am ethics too strongly (in case I have to take level 3 again!)

2 days for results and this post will be moot.

#70

Somehow this post reminded me of Edupristine. The correlation between the content of this post and the context of the content of Edupristine’s, is positive in a negatively positive way. A rational educated calculated objective guess confirms the variability of the constant cyclical derivative.