Blackswan doesn’t even lift.
pathetic
dont hurt em BS, dont hurt em
he doesn’t even lift!
^Neither did Herschel Walker, but I bet he coulda still f—d most of us here up.
Hersheys Walter isn’t even a real person
BS, I understand you’re frustrated, and the “please continue to congratulate yourself” bit did make me chuckle, but I know you’re a better man than this post makes you look.
Be that better man, because he’s a good guy to have around.
I am guessing DoW has never traded or seriously attempted at trading. If he did, he would realize that the materials are worthless. Therefore, the CMT is worthless. That’s not an opinion. That’s a fact. No serious trader would ever consider reading those materials.
Debates are for those who have not seriously attempted at either or both. If you seriously attempted at understanding the technicals, it is by far the more superior. Let’s just say that there is a technical truth to the idea that stocks converge to its intrinsic value.
You just described almost everyone posting on, or reading, AF.
You can debate on many things, but not on this.
My problem with most TA practitioners is that they do it half ass. They don’t handicap with real data and odds. It’s quantitative and based on empirical evidence. Use the evidence. You never hear them say something like, “with this set-up, there is a x% chance of an average upside move of y and a z% chance of an average downside move of X over the next twenty trading days, therefore I’m doing whatever.” It’s always fluff. "Should do this, should do that. " I had a CMT working for me. He didn’t quite understand why I thought yearly trading commissions of 5% was a big hurdle to overcome, not to mention the true cost of the transactions that needed to be considered. I do believe certain human behaviors should be able to be identified in the charts and you probably can handicap the next move on occasion, but you do need to know the odds. And my guess is that actionable setups are rare. Once the word of a certain pattern gets out, the odds would change. If you find a pile of pennies, worth millions, in the woods, you better hope the word doesn’t get out before you can secure the pile.
Prophecy, I run billions of dollars for a living. What do you do? Are you still a student? Are you a trader?
Certified Massage Therapist?
Well, trading is not necessarily the same as “running billions of dollars”. In fact, these sound like two different things.
Note - this shouldn’t be viewed as a condemnation to DoW, whom I think is one of the smartest and coolest guys on AF.
True, but regardless of how you differentiate trading and portfolio management, I get amused by the ignorance of people posting in forums like this. My point is that it is comical to me that this kid, who probably never pulled the trigger on a single share of stock in his life, is making wild assumptions on peoples’ backgrounds based on, I don’t know, some philosophy he got from some textbook somewhere? And now he speaks like the authority on the nature of intrinsic value?
Certified Monkey Trainer?
LOL…It’s been awhile since I heard that one. The guy now sucks up to me whenever we meet. Folks like you don’t impress me. What you do don’t impress me either. What I find amusing is that a guy that supposedly runs ‘billions of dollars,’ yet don’t know CMT is full of shit. How long have you been in the game? Your reply tells a lot about who you are buddy. You are not even disputing what I said. And my assumptions are correct. Are you telling me that you have seriously considered trading and concluded that CMT is valuable? Do a search. Takes only a few minutes.
I have never said what the intrinsic value actually is. Is this is same mystical number you pull out of your ass? What I said was, and read carefully if you can, that there is a technical validity to the claim that a stock converges to its intrinsic value. Not what the value actually is. Go home. Read it over several times. Maybe It’ll come to you. But I have concluded that an insecure prick like you will probably never get it.
^Did it seriously take you almost three weeks to find a comeback?
Edit - I also find it funny that a bunch of people say, “Well, everybody believes it so it must be true” about technical analysis. Yet they profess to be atheists or agnostics. Not trying to turn this into a conversation about the afterlife, but just wanted to point out that “because a lot of people think it’s true” doesn’t necessarily make it true.
This is not comparable. The 50 day moving average is a meaningless data point, except to the extent everyone believes it’s a relevant data point, so it becomes relevant. You can watch stocks and measure this across the stock market and it IS relevant even though it’s completely silly. You can’t measure anything the Sky Fairy does.
Good Will Hunting
Yes, technical analysis can be a kind of self fulfilling prophecy. If enough people buy on a a particular chart pattern because they believe it is a true indicator, lo-and-behold, the chart pattern succeds in predicting trading behavior because people believe it’s true, which ends up strengthening the belief.
Over long cycles, these patterns go through fads and phases, but they do tend to get arbitraged out over the long term in a kind of predator-prey type model. Also some technical approaches (trend following, for example) are more prone to this feedback loop than others. Also, technical patterns can vary by time frame (trends and channels may work well in monthly time frames, but counter-trend patterns might work better in daily charts because the supply and demand for stuff and fundamentals of stuff doesn’t tend to change all that much on a daily basis - absent unexpected shocks like merger announcements and natural or political disasters).