Clearly can’t stand the competition of the mighty Embraers! Next! 
downgrade =/
I think this post is still best summary of the risk on the name:
From BB:
Bradesco BBI analyst Victor Mizusaki downgraded the recommendation on Embraer SA to underperform from neutral.
Mizusaki lowered the target price to $18 from $22, implying a 13 percent decline from the last close. The target is 33 percent below the consensus average of $27 and matches the lowest in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Embraer had 13 buy recommendations, 7 holds and 1 sell before today.
Investors who followed Mizusaki’s recommendation would have received a 31 percent return over the past year before today, compared with the -16 percent return on the shares.
Analysts raised their consensus one-year target price for the stock by 6.6 percent in the past three months. Forecasts range from $18 to $35.
earnings out
I’ll preface this by saying I don’t know anything about industry but I came across this about the 190
"jetBlue Airways has joined many other US airlines in undertaking a comprehensive fleet review, but its reasons are different from those of its larger counterparts United and Delta, which are assessing their future widebody needs. jetBlue is focused on the opposite end of the spectrum, studying the future viability of the smallest aircraft in its fleet – the 100-seat Embraer 190.
The airline is reiterating declarations it made regarding the Embraer 190s earlier in 2017 to determine whether the unit revenue benefits it derives from their operation are worth the aircraft’s higher operating costs. jetBlue is the largest worldwide operator of the aircraft, and represents 33% of existing orders for the Embraer 190."
I saw the JetBlue release and I think that’s a huge part of the weight on price right now alongside just a lot of broad weakness. The JetBlue review is specifically around their fleet size, not the overall viability of the plane. So they are reviewing their leases and new orders that would add to an already heavily outsized fleet. One potential outcome is that their outstanding E190 order gets moved to an E2 order.
Right now, admittedly the situation looks pretty rough with weakness across the board. The biggest problem I see is that Boeing and Airbus have responded to widebody weakness by more or less dumping narrowbodies into the market and Bombardier is doing the same with the C Series. These are planes that in a normal environment would never compete with one another, but instead because of bargain pricing driven by widebody weakness are now suddenly lumped together in consideration.
It’s interesting because its such a change of tone from last quarter. I still think the fundamentals are there for the business jet market and nothing seems to have changed other than having a weak quarter. Military demand for the KC390 still looks strong, although first deliveries won’t be until end of 2017. That really leaves the E2 as the big question. For me, personally, it’s the most common regional aircraft in service with a demonstrated track record and new model deliveries less than a year out. It’s also not a significant credit risk given a cash position at 72% of total debt and free cash flow improving from ~(800M) TTM to a consensus estimate of ~ ($162M) in '17 and positive $82M in '18. Right now, it’s been a deluge of negative sentiment across the commercial aerospace on the new order front but I’m personally still holding this one through the time horizon.
OUCH… time to buy more?
I’m already maxed in terms of position size for ERJ, CF and UAN so at this point I’m just riding this one along to see where it goes. On the positive side, nothing fundamentally seems to have changed, but holding through these sort of drops is always uncomfortable.
I’ve been debating whether or not to jump on this crazy train. Looks like today is decision day.
what a piece of shit this thing is. Good thing I didnt attend that NYC meetup, or I wouldve cut BS with my machete…
Easy, Trigger… BS is an analyst, not your portfolio manager.
I think… I can’t remember what everyone here does.
I actually agree with BS’s take on that stock, I think it’s a great entry since it’s more due to Brazil exposure (which he already mentioned), not anything fundamental driven.
Haha, I was actually wondering why you didn’t show up so you could give me shit. Ah well, maybe next time.
It’s down a whopping 7.5% since I first recommended it (although down majorly against the market) and down significantly from when you bought. Volatility sucks when it doesn’t go your way, but try not to get your panties from getting in a bunch when a trade doesn’t go perfectly. Sheesh.
Picked up a bit more yesterday @ 18.00. Also made a quick 4.5% on EWZ to help cushion the blow on this bad boy so only own 7% overall. Rest of my portfolio is knocking it out of the park so I can live with it.
if anyone lost money over the last year, they need to quit
Cmon bro everyone knows a five year holding is judged by the first five week performance. You are losing credibility… Ha
GS: price target at $18 and sell rating. Boeing and Airbus aren’t excited about the coming quarters either. Folding?