News rumor is BA agreed on $28 per share but govt still holding out over control issue. Ouch, the FCX too!
Nostradamus strikes again: “I would not be surprised to see copper approaching $3.00 over the long term.” 2/5/16
Today: $3.23
was a dang good call - if i wasnt forced to sell id be holding still and would certainly buy you a drink. You & Tommy had some solid discussion, all in all good post. Indexing is boring
You don’t own the Black Swan ETF?
expense load on that bad boy was ridiculous
I’ve not been working in public markets for awhile, so I feel like I’m missing something:
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Initial post on 10/24/2016, price $20.00
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Recent close: ~$25.
So, that is a 25% return. SPY did 27% with way less vol. Again, maybe it is due to sector coverage, as I’ve never covered industrials, but it just seems like an “ok” pick. Not hating, just curious why everyone is so happy about 25% gains over 15 months in this market. Anyone care to explain why this pick is impressive? Happy for all those who made/are making money!
Two days ago was at >30% return, if deal is consummated, murmur price is $28 (+40%) volatility hasn’t been that high, beta <0.5.
To Fact Check’s point, this is not the exit point yet, and:
Which bodes well for forward returns if you buy the case which BA/AIR have just validated by transacting into the space. So you either have forced exit at $28 within a year (+40%) or hold for two years and realize the upside as these new models ramp and a service / sales JV is likely formed with BA. Also this comes on the heals of >30% short term calls on JOY and CF.
Okay, that is going too far. You can’t quote yourself to prove a point hahahahaha
you could argue that while the S&P 500 made more than ERJ over that time period with less vol, the return was harder to come by as it relied on parts of the market getting crazy overvalued (e.g. semis, big tech, industrials, materials). and it just feels better owning something at 10x trailing versus the broad market at 20x earnings hoping it’ll reach 24x earnings.
semis and big tech overvalued? the ones that provide the best value are in these two spaces imo. they’ve appreciated a lot, but so have their earnings/fcf, and guidance.
If you just invested in SPY you would’ve crushed the shittt black swan ETF
edit: mla beat me to it
i know… glad BS is back - only guy that can pull this off without it being completely ridiculous
you can’t be serious. MU will be profitless within 2-3 years and scraping the bottom of the barrel to remain solvent, as they do every 3-5 years. NVDA is probably 3-4x its actual value as they trade at 50x trailing juiced up earnings. when crypto bubble pops, NVDA is going to be quartered, if its lucky. semis are the best example of a value trap. semis look cheapest when they’re actually the most expensive. semi (and memory) pricing makes semis more similar to commodity companies than anything close to resembling blue chips.
big tech is harder call but the day will come when AMZN’s competitors actually compete. i think that process is starting now with WMT becoming an actual online competitor and with incumbent retailers forced to invest in e-commerce or die. my AMZN use has fallen maybe 50% over the past year as their search results blow due to it being a marketplace versus a traditional retailer. pricing is the same on BBY but i don’t have to deal with the marketplace and getting 10,000 results for a very specific search query.
SaaS is still overvalued relative to true growth opps. its revaluation day will come. tencent and baba have stupid valuations for much of the same reason as AMZN. priced for perfection. will they lead for a few decades? very likely, will they do so with no competition forever? no. all gaming stocks are stupidly valued. 3x historical. AAPL is probably overvalued given ultimate size versus economy and trading 50% above historical. i like GOOG long-term as i think the Pixel will pick away at iPhone market share, it has a good chance at leading self-driving, should remain dominant in search and could see wearables actually work if they can get Pixel working for them. that said, it could use a valuation reset to 25x too despite its solid outlook becuase of its size. massive companies should not and cannot trade at 50%-100% of the market valuation forever. all tech companies are given the benefit of the doubt that they and they alone will dominate the future despite new companies being much more likely to find themselves as the victors.
agree with MLA. just put your money is FB
you are cherry picking on the semis. those are obvi overvalued. i know at least 2 semis that are cheap historically/relatively and growing 10%+ historically and through guidance.
i dont like amazon. baba is the better play imo. but i dont like baba eitehr too expensive. relatively cheap though to comps.
goog is pretty good but its on the slightly expensive side. replacing it with fb soon.
i did just sell out of a gaming co, its getting expensive.
aapl. im selling out soon.
all semis are overvalued. MU and NVDA are poster children for their subcategories. it’s a chip/memory pricing issue. they will all look expensive when pricing makes nearly all of them unprofitable.
Overvalued based on what? You can’t look at semis as a super cyclical industry anymore with new emerging tech. That was one of the reasons why many people got it wrong last few years. They failed to notice the change.
so recessions don’t exist anymore?
They do but I doubt it’s gonna happen in 2018 with rates where they are and tax cuts. By historical standards most of the companies, especially in the US are overvalued.
not according to WB
gundlach would disagree. but personally i dont think its baked in yet. we will see a lot of upward revisions on earnings.
rates will not stay this low for long imo. federal reserve has more of an incentive to raise rates. even more so than last year and they raised it 75 bps. i remember a while back people spoke about the great rotations bonds moving to stocks. now i believe it will be stocks moving to bonds as rates rise. the chinks are selling out of us bonds. also i disagree on semis being commodities. they are very research oriented and patent whores.
mla can you elaborate on semiconductors. just very curious on it. from what i know everyone has great hopes due to iot. and new devices needing more computing power. 5g. yada yada yada. are you saying that the prices they are charging are too high, and rev and eps will fall? and again they are not all overvalued.i can promise you that. i have checked them hisrotically. i know at least 2.