Life isn’t a game of inches. It’s a game of probabilities. Decisions should always weighted and analysed by their probable outcomes.
What’s the probability that you are able to, in a successive fashion, out-calculate market prices which is validated by a huge number of people, just like you? What’s the probability that you have an edge that other people don’t have?
If you can’t answer these questions, you are just playing lottery. You might not know it now but continue on this route and you will learn and you will know.
Time and law of large numbers are great teachers.
see thats a fair point. but look we here are all cfa charterholders. you know what the odds are of actually achieving the charter? 20%. and on avg you had to take 5 different tests, cuz of people who achieve the charter on avg they fail about twice. each try took about 300 hours. so you devote about 1500 hours just to have a 20% chance of passing on avg. think about that. we’re all pretty dumb to take those chances, but we did it anyways. VC investments have a 10% chance of becoming profitable, the other 10% breakeven, and 80% fail horribly. trading has those same chances as well. target schools have an acceptance rate of 20%. yet we still all applied and dreamed, and got in. anyways even buy and hold has not so good returns, in bessembinder’s study he calculated that only 5% of the stocks generated almost all the wealth creation. not to mention that only half the companies with a buy and hold strategy since inception beat a one month treasury bill. let that sink in boys. the point is odds are always stacked in most things that we do, but we all gave it a shot because deep down inside we know we were born with a loaded die.
In jess glyne’s music video rather be, she said:
If you gave me a chance I would take it
It’s a shot in the dark but I’ll make it
Know with all of your heart, you can’t shame me
stay gold ponyboy. dont let the the detractors destroy your ambition of fast cars and movie stars. with coke and ice.
I don’t fully agree. You are basing your analysis on an assumption that every candidates chances of succeeding were equal. You are putting a motivated finance mba in the same basket as a “let’s see how this goes, I might want work in finance after earning my degree from boondock state community college” undergraduate. Taking into account survivorship bias, I’d say the people who earned they charter are a different breed than those who failed.
Obviously there are exceptions, but lineup 100 failures and 100 charterholders and analyse their life and habits. I think you’d see some difference regarding career motivations etc
As one wise man once said:
You’re gon’ learn today!
CEO10k please, enlighten us about your edge? Tell us what’s your skill set that sets your apart from the other CFA/Harvard/MIT/HEC/LSE analysts? (Obvi, don’t reveal your secrets )
What’s the probability that you are able to, in a successive fashion, out-calculate market prices which is validated by a huge number of people, just like you? What’s the probability that you have an edge that other people don’t have?
If you can’t answer these questions, you are just playing lottery. You might not know it now but continue on this route and you will learn and you will know.
Time and law of large numbers are great teachers.
Wise words. Everyone except magician and DOW should take note. And BS and Ohai. Peace
Probably. They are siding on ceo on short term, tracksuit in the long term
I got to give to @CEO10K-DAY: he really does put the money where his mouth is (this is if he actually goes through with then trades he has told us). Despite my own personal opinion of his probabilities of success, he is man enough to walk the walk talk and talk.
Even though I don’t agree with him, I do respect his conviction.
The world is full of men of “should have, could have, would have” people. CEO doesn’t seem to be that kind of a dude.
Wait, you’re actually serious with all that? Homie… I’m buying literally the exact same ■■■■ that all those Harvard/MIT guys are - including Nancy Pelosi.
I bought leaps on a growth stock that has Amazon-esque future revenue expectations at a time when Ivol was below historical averages. How much more text book do you want me to get with why its a good trade? I have a year and a half to expiration and a solid good 6+ months before I have to even worry about writing calls against it to take my premium back out.
)
both have a good track but who willl prevail?