You’re so focused (and maybe jealous?) of the US that discussing the pros and cons with you is pointless. Yeah, I get the argument that the US in its current state is not really a democracy in the sense that money buys elections and power, but this is more like a side step due to giving too much power to the corporations.
But a failed state? Easily falsified - see where the most ambitious, intelligent and clever people in the world flock to. Where are the most powerful companies established? The US.
CSI300 (aka. PA) is just a brainwashed troll. Everything is “China best, everyone else sucks (especially US)” with him. He’s completely hopeless and just pushes whatever the Chinese propaganda machine spews.
Hate to say it, but we’ll probably be dealing with more PA types as China’s economy grows larger and asserts itself more on the global stage. Welcome to the new normal, sigh…
Nice seeing little Yankees arguing with each other to decide who has the biggest !
As Americans, you should always remember that you are nothing else but the descendants of Europe’s scums and bums.
To make it short, my ancestors (I’m French) bullied yours so badly that they had to flee on a boat. Hahaha
Y’all nothing but a reflection of England’s influence on the world, and half of you have German/Scandinavian genes lmao. The moment you forget that is the moment when you start playing yourself guys.
but at the end of the day. isnt whats most important is who is relevant and unfortunately. this is not france. even a single state in the us such as california, is more relevant than france. very sad since you guys came from napoleon bonaparte while our claim to fame is the terminator.
Yet after all is said and done, you will keep sending your kids even to subpar US colleges and prep schools (just because the US looks so great on your resume), kissing the tarmac when landing in Paris (pathetic!), making up your faces white to appear more “Western” (very, very sad!) and crossing your fingers in the hopes of getting a green card so you might have the chance to move to California.
Well this thread went a little sideways. Ease up on the nationalism and bigotry/racism, boys.
In any event as of today I’m down a cool 27% on the year in my retirement account. Made a few dollars back in my cash account via day trading on the yuge dips, but overall not a pleasant start to 2020.
Depending on the day Im split between going full bore leveraged into a few high quality names, or run to the bunker because we’re headed for a depression.
Also concerned about real estate. I’m set to close on an investment property in Toronto next week that we’ve been verbally handshaking on but haven’t actually signed the paper, so I can still get out of it. I just don’t see how Covid doesn’t cripple the market. If not for the banks deferring payment for 6 months and the gov’t converting to socialism, I think we’d already be there. Have to wonder how long banks and governments will continue to be generous once the losses/debt starts piling up.
back out fast. the move is to refinances and cash out your property. real estate prices as far as i’ve seen in my local market has hardly dropped. they have not felt the pain yet of unemployment nor the effects of a credit crunch and spreads have doubled by almost 600 bps when comparing higher junk to lower junk. i am thinking many people will stop paying their rent soon, and when they do, a lot of the owners w/o liquidity will prolly start defaulting. commercial properties are already getting screwed right now and are offering the flexibility. some are outright demanding full payment because of their obligations. the key thing in real estate is leverage, and if revenue stream dries up. prepare to get crushed.
also in terms of high quality names. there are two way to go about it. either a co that is necessary like a consumer staple or a utility. or 2, a co with an amazing balance sheet which are clearly the big tech cos. both will keep you sleeping soundly… the ones with debt, you’ll have to wonder when revenue streams will come back, how much your burn rate will be, what your new debt will be refied too or what kind of bailout you’ll receive. you’ll be forced to listen to the news out there and hope. and like i always say, hoping is for the poors.
I think you’re right Nerdy on the looming housing crisis. Unless this thing miraculously clears up I don’t see any way around it. I’ll prob back out today. Either that or come back at him with a lowball offer… which he’ll probably take but not without hunting me down a donating a punch in the face. That’s OK.
Market rallying again today. Don’t feel like doing any stock buying after a 10% rally in 2 days. I’m going to wait for the next leg down and begin leveraging in.
In the words of Winston Churchill, when you’re going through hell - keep going.
I think a 10% haircut is appropriate given the environment. Like you said, the pain hasn’t really been felt yet and most ppl still think their house has the same value it did back in Jan/Feb. Anything less than that I think he tells me to politely fu*k off.
How do you guage the rental market? I want to buy a house, but I haven’t seen inventory levels start to rise yet, because what I’m guessing is the rental market hasn’t collapsed? I’m looking in a pretty boojey area too, so I would have thought all the people who levered themselves up to buy 10-20 properties would have flooded the market by now.
Yeah really the banks have saved the day, so far - at least in Canada. They’ve allowed for up 6 month payment deferral on all mortgages and most installment loans. This really helps those who have rental properties where the tenants can’t pay the rent. If they hadn’t of done this I think we’d be in a world of hurt right now.
So the need to flash sell hasn’t really hit yet because the cash flow issue has been mitigated. But I know a few people first hand who listed their house in the last few weeks to try and get ahead of a potential downturn. There was a stark difference in the March housing data, a tale of two halves. Second half of March saw a dramatic decline in listings/sales and a 10% decline in the average sale price vs. the first half. As each month passes and the data becomes more available panic could set in and listings will rise.
Moreover I’ve read about local businesses that have permanently closed up shop. A lot of small biz owners simply don’t have the liquidity to ride out a few weeks, let alone a few months.
And the housing market is notoriously slow to react to changes in the economy. If this thing drags into the summer I have no doubt listings rise and prices fall. Demand for rent should increase, all things considered, but have to imagine rental rates will drop accordingly. Look for a decent cap rate on your purchase and you should be OK. Cap rates in Toronto are/were at or below 2%. That’s insane. There will be deals… patience pays off in a time like this.
