Lastly I will say this. There is a lot of companies out there with a lot of debt that should have blown up. Junk bonds differentials literally went 700 Bps higher but has now contracted 200 bps. Many of them should have blown up and borrowed at far higher rates. Imo as their earnings still won’t return back to normal. They will have to restructure their debt.
Nerdy, the 50x multiple was obviously hyperbole that made the rest of my rant make sense.
I’m just saying there’s no such thing as a republican anymore. Oh ya sure they all believe in “mAh CaPiTALisM” but they also believe no one should ever go bankrupt it seems. It’s seriously become too easy to make fun of all the shortcomings of both parties. So why even try anymore? I’m gonna vote for Jack ■■■■■■■ Daniels in November. And I’d love to see anyone tell me I’m throwing my vote away. Because they ont even know what voting is!
I still think I’d rather see Biden win though. I’d rather take four years of literally nothing get done. Then have to listen to another second of trump tell the world how interest rates should work in the strongest economy on the planet.
Of course they play an important role. That’s like saying I want to forecast the EPS of coke without making an explicit or implicit estimate of the price of sugar. We live in the real world and fiscal and monetary systems are here to stay. The whole cry and blame the Greenspan put is just a lazy thinking way to not take the blame for getting the forecast wrong. How we want capital markets to be structured is different from the way they actually are. And we trade in the world of the actual, not the imagined.
I’m currently taking an outsized bet on the banking sector. Of course the Fed actions weigh into my willingness to take that bet. We will see how it goes, but you’ll never catch me blaming Obama for my lack of forecasting ability.
generally takes a few quarters for bankruptcies to uptick. COVID was a bankruptcy accelerator for unviable business models (or companies that had issues pre-COVID). HY companies generally do not wash away overnight. They bleed slow for a few quarters / years. RX & lawyer bros about to make their nut.
There is a lot of speculation and poor information out there, but this is worth a look. It’s pretty quick.
