icic. are you a millionaire?
Is anything not up 50% from 2 months ago?
ERJ 
S&P up 43%, none of mine below that, two more than double with one nearly triple that.
It’s painful right now - so but i need to ride it out a few more days and potentially course correct. I will say, I am also quite skeptical of today’s unemployment numbers.
I’m down almost $8k this week. And like, even though I totally got my butt handed to me, I still think the trades I had up, “made” sense.
I’m joking. I obviously know you’re the real deal.
if u were trump. are you telling me you wouldnt use government money to buy the vote?
Yeah, there will be another round of stimulus to Nerdy’s point, there is agreement in both parties on that. Fed is still in place, rates are still 0% for the foreseeable runout (which has huge valuation implications) and looking at new case data and EU is very encouraging. The same is true for key coastal states. You have warm weather, looming vaccines, a very strong consumer (look at savings rates and disp income). To the extent there is a a second wave it increasingly looks like it will be small (this narrative is overplayed) and earnings this quarter is going to include a lot of upside surprise at how low operators got their cash burn (IMO). Talking to small businesses lately, many are seeing record or near record levels of activity and there are a myriad of indicators that reinforce that. Nearly every subsector is seeing a faster than expected reopening and response with strong consumer demand. Will the recovery be linear? Probably not, but being short right now is a really risky situation to be sitting in. Hopefully you get a small pullback in the next week or two to advisedly exit but I just don’t think the underlying logic to that position in this timing was very good, we’ll see though, hopefully you’re right in some sense for your sake.
Appreciate this and it’s very sound. This pretty much aligns to my plan - recoup some losses and capitulate and tell the wife the lakehouse is going to need to wait another year.
i think you’ll see unemployment tick up again. majority of the rehires are from restaurants which is mostly due to ppp loan. as they open these restaurants will prolly realize they arent getting as much revenue. and will start laying ppl off. and the following chain reaction. abnkruptcies and credit defaults. i think we’ll see rich ppl save more and invest. and poor people basically beg for ubi. us is a welfare state now. winners subsidizing losers via stimulus welfare checks and low interest debt. the welfare checks are fine. that mostly hurts ppl who trusted the us dollar. but the low interest debt. that could ultimately crush them in the future.
ultimately recessions begin with a credit crisis. the federal reserve has provided liquidity to avoid it. but this is not a permanent fix othewise we’d just print and no one would work.
things can go eitehr 2 ways. consumer spending justifies the additional debt load in these companies. or these companies get crushed and credit is lost. and thats where the real fun begins. 1 month bear market. get that garbage out of here. lol
“Rambling”
Your positions don’t even reflect your incoherent ramble. If you get down into it and talk with restaurant hires most actually did the layoffs and business and the recovery is running ahead of expectations. You’re focusing to much on one sector here and ignoring the fact that markets are looking out 6 -12 months, which I think is the biggest mistake you hear from the bears.
Ok, so quantify it. Wrong as usual, but put a target and a time stamp on something.
If you get into the industry and talk to restaurant owners I think you’d have a better idea of what you this indicates.
Remember the GFC where good news was actually treated as bad news … This ties into what I was referring to earlier around the May employment report signaling the need not to continue stimulus programs.
And therein lies the risk, according to Mohamed El Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, who warned of a potential “major head fake” that could lessen the appetite in Washington for more economic support.
In theory, the May report might be “picking up the impact of data distortions and policy distortions” that could make Congress do less, he told Yahoo Finance on Friday. “That’s the nightmare scenario.”
El Erian has been so comically wrong on this thing, you’re going to get wiped out waiting for a doomsday scenario. I wouldn’t base an investment case on something a perma bear begins with “In theory…”
Ok, good calls, got to give credit when credit is due. But in the long term, these numbers are pretty irrelevant. You have close to a 30-40yo investment horizon in front of you. Do you believe your active strategy will give you the alpha you’re looking for in the long run as well?
I only really get active when its a major dislocation then when things get back to normal (probably after I cross capital gains 1Y threshold) I usually go back to a more passive ETF strategy and just do allocation. It can go like that for a year or two. The biggest mistake people make is trying to make single name alpha every quarter or whatever and whatever alpha you would make in that environment is typically minimal and not worth the time. So you swoop in when its a dislocation, take over the reigns, make money, hand it back to passive etc.
Fair enough. Sounds like a strategy that could also work in the long run. Time is our judge!
What’s so complicated about the restaurant industry. 30 percent to labor. 30 percent to cost of goods. 20 percent to rent etc. 5 to 10 percent split between credit card fees and what I mentioned. And a 10to15 percent op margin. You won’t last with 75 percent capacity.
Bring on the 20 dollar burgers and 10 dollar pints! Seriously tho, I will pay whatever they want to let me sit there and be served for a few hours.