Well, the truth of it is, I spent some of the profits (picking up the puppy on Friday). I did buy some SSO but I sold it WAY too soon. I did get a backhand though shorting IWM & ROKU but alltogether only lost about $5k on them. I still have $15K left of pure cash. I’m not buying SSO with it right now though.
Some patterns in life are extremely consistent, and the fractal wave pattern (elliot wave theory) is something I truly believe is going to play out. So, I’m buying more VXX I think with that $15K.
Gotta admit the losses, good man. I think I win the prize for the worst trade in AF history, however. Last week I had $800 cash kicking around in my RRSP and thought I’d do a little gambling. Bought HOU (2X bull Oil ETF) - the day before oil bottomed at -$40/barrel. So in 24 hours I lost, and remain down ~ 80%. How 'bout that.
Other than that ridiculous trade I usually don’t try to time the market. Don’t have the stones to go short with any material amount of capital and I mostly keep a long-ish time horizon. You could be right about the near term correction, who knows.
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No, that prize is forever immortalized with “SUNI BROS!”.
Sadly, I can’t just type that as a message anymore because the powers that be place a 10 character minimum inexplicably and killed one of my favorite memes here.
ERJ is close behind although to be fair I abandoned that in the low 20’s a long time ago.
That is a major bastardization of fractal theory.
Swan, you’re smarter than me. It’s okay. I don’t care. I just want to get rich.
And we both know what the wave count is telling us.
on goog im up 22%. btu that literally the S&P 500 return. also i only dropped 10k. so its not meaningful to my net worth.
I was also hoping to buy a bunch of other names. I have refined them to 5 that i wanted to buy. they shot up even more so its out of the question. my mortgage set to close soon too. so im gonna get like 60k net of fees. then as soon as that closes im getting a home equity loan for another 40k. so i will be flushed with cash pretty soon. no chance in hell im betting hte house at these prices though.
anyways im hoping we get another crash pretty soon. im pretty sure we’ll retest the lows again. but i am more interested in the real estate market. 20% unemployed with no one to hire them as their busineses die, ppl going to be defualting on their landlords soon. I want to get a multi unit property close to where i work so i can live in 1 and rent the others. did u end up closing on ur property btw?
on dal hopefully u are right. my bro works there. but they cash burn is about 100m per day. their current ratio is ■■■■. honestly luv and alk have a better position than them and i wouldnt buy them either. demand for airlines iwll be down for 2 years. they going to be beggin for cash in that time period. imo ur going to get diluted if you hold. its russian roullete baby.
They actually cut the cash burn to $50M per day and dropping.
LUV is great if you’re a bond holder but are 60% fuel hedged for 2020 and I outlined the myriad of reasons DAL will benefit in the consolidated international market in the out years. So no.
It’s really not they’ve had a myriad of levels to pull (early retirements, canceled deliveries, rolling off leases) and are sitting on $6B in cash (not including grant proceeds). None of this even accounts for the potential for this wave of medical research to lead to a breakthrough with vaccine estimates now pointing to late 2020. At this stage IMO, this one is settled vaccine or no.
Anyhow Nerdy, the bear case you laid out, I don’t think is really remotely realistic. I’ll make you a bet if we don’t cross within 5% of the SPX March lows (so about 2350) by Aug 1 you gotta ship a bottle of whisky to me your choice. Otherwise I’ll send your choice (category choice only) drink to you. Don’t pull an MLA on me and default like he did on that Fact Check guy.
Edit: Also please don’t mortgage your house to invest in the market.
Still plenty of deals out there. I’ve seen this act too many times to miss the boat again. It’s the “recovered too much I’ll wait for a correction before I buy”ism. I’m seeking alpha through strategic beta… markets will almost certainly be higher 24 months from now and I hate to miss a good deal so I’m holding current positions. Put a fair amount of leverage out in the past month. Could be wrong, we’ll see.
I backed out of that real estate deal in the end. Without question the guy wants to stab me but it is what it is. We had no signed agreement, just a verbal handshake. Been watching the real estate market daily for trends. Toronto avg sale price down 9% this month. Damn banks have saved a collapse, but I expected that in the short term. I’ll prob start putting in some insulting offers within the next few months. As it is I spent a few hours this evening canvassing the market. No fire sales just yet.
Haha I’m not going to take that bet. There ar plenty of reasons why it won’t go down. Fed or government stimulus can really prevent a stock market crash. In terms of vaccine, I think the most realistic timeline is March. To be honest I think Covid will be conquered even before a vaccine comes through. My issue is the credit markets. That’s what people are failing to see. Too many levered companies who are all focused on cutting costs. Unemployment will remain high imo. Not to mention people will not be spending money.
For dal even at 50m that is too much of a burn. They will need cash. There is no doubt. Ur betting on government giving them a grant. Which they may to save jobs. But what is the point of saving a job that won’t be used. People will travel less. That is imo a 2 year impact. I saw a chart that tracked every scare we had for airline industry. And if that is the case these airlines are in for a world of hurt. They need a restructure and I don’t think it’ll be favorable to equity holders.
As for waiting for a drop. I am fully invested. I maybe have 3 percent cash. What I am talking about is betting the house. That requires me to be a bit more careful. If prices don’t fall I’d rather pay a couple percent in net interest rate just so I’m liquid.
Also I dunno if you’ve seen forward multiples. But at current prices we are at new highs. And that’s with pretty rosy forward earnings imo.
I’m not betting on a grant for DAL. I’m saying with what they have and the grant that they’ve already been given they are good. I’m not expecting another cent from the govt on this one and there will not be a restructuring. It’s just the facts of the math, I laid out the case above. I covered this space professionally and picked this thing apart. Even under a bear scenario DAL exits ahead of LUV operationally. Just facts. I’ll recast my whisky bet into there is no next round of airline stimulus for DAL and DAL survives.
It’s not remotely accurate based on the conversations I have across the industry if you think people aren’t seeing a credit impact or are ignoring it. The forward multiple argument is also way off base for a large number of reasons also discussed before (effect of zero rates, QE size and timing, needing to price on normalized earnings exiting wipe outs). Consider the fact that markets were approaching 2007 bubble highs in 2011 despite no metric (earnings, economic stats, etc) approaching 2007 levels. It’s a useful exercise.
Yes you are thinking operationally but My argument is that there is nothing for them to do operationally. For me what matters is bs. And even the guy with the best bs has a lot of problems.
also I think this is where I disagree with the market. Many think this is some v shaped recovery. And I just don’t see it.
Govt is keeping everything afloat. spending 2 trillion in stimulus spending while Fed is pumped the market with about 6t in asset purchases. They have pushed rates lower by force.
Now at these valuations, They need people to spend to justify the markets. Everyone thinks there is some pent up demand coming because of the shut down. I am in the camp that disagrees. They can push up prices but that demand will not come to justify them. Ppl are levered, unemployed, and scared to spend.
There are two types of companies that will win. A clean balance sheet, or revenues that are recurring. And that’s the issue with the airline industry.
We still have too many investment grade companies that have an impaired balance sheet. They can’t be basing their grade on cash flow anymore. It’s time they focus on what they got on hand.
also what do you mean by this? EPS recovered by end of 2011 at 2007 levels.
most peopl now think vaccine that is widely available wont be around until aug 2021. gates also has an interview saying same exact thing.
My point there is that all of the economic data still lagged including unemployment, real estate bankruptcies, nearly a million homeless, folded businesses, collapsed major banks, even on a scale this will not replicate in the financial markets.
Activity levels were generally lower. But, cost cutting (jobs/wages, lower rates) were extremely supportive. As was the the stimulus (and we’re looking at $3T now). These are not nothing.
Gates is talking about globally including 3rd world countries. Nearly everyone involved is saying year end from the US task force on the issue to Oxford’s team.
We can go round and round but you keep backpedaling when I try to hold you to a concrete view before coming back with 50 excuses. Bears are capitulating in real time.
us banks sure. but banks outside are in a very weak position due to negative rates.
follow that with a weak global economy and it aint rosy.
3t is pretty substantial in terms of spending. many gdp forecast are now predicting a 25% drop. thats about a 5 trillion drop.
lol. its not an excuse. this is just an argument on a difference of opinion. anyways lets discuss your portfolio position. since you are so bullush, how levered are you? say it as a percent of your net worth. and lets not backtrack from this number since you are all knowing. cuz u have a habit of having a 5 year horizon then selling at the top in a year then dollar cost averaging as it goes down to sell at the top again.
also got a link on vaccine timeline?
enjoy.
No need to really break it out that way, this is easy enough to put it in market terms. I’ve been pretty clear along the ways on timelines of when I suggested buys and sells. I gave multiple bet opportunities and made several hard calls earlier this thread with all three smoking yours.
So far you’ve just wiggled out of everything, you went from “pretty sure we’d retest the lows again” to me giving you a 5% threshold by Aug 1 followed by being unwilling to even bet a bottle of booze on it.
Then you threw out a garbage DAL analysis that used stale cash burn numbers and was somehow worse than your first attempt to explain a bear case that never materialized. My positioning is bullish, but for how “pretty sure” you are on things you lack any conviction when I try to put a hard target on it and back pedal.
Concretely what even are your views with timelines because it seems like we’re getting a lot of non-committal market strategist platitudes. Put some numbers and timelines on things.
lol that not how i work. i dont know. im ok to admit. ur issue is you think you know everything.
its not what you know that hurts you. its what you think you know that just aint so.
Lol, gold. Get a job as a sell side strategist.