supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > up up down down left right left right b a I think this is the cheat code to get 30 lives for a very, very old game on Nintendo called “CONTRA” by Konami.
I liked that game a lot. Man, I can’t believe I miss the 80s.
Up. Wishful thinking? Maybe.
supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > up up down down left right left right b a I don’t know, could be the Blood Code for Mortal Combat Dow just broke 9,000. Can’t be a good sign.
Well, now that an Obama presidency looks fairly certain, my guess is the market will go down a bit as people reallocate in expectation of higher capital gains taxes. However, it probably won’t be all that much, because: 1) It will still take time for legislation to pass. Most likely it will only be profits on 2009 capital gains that are taxed. 2) We don’t know if there will be many capital gains for the next year or two. Once the reallocation has taken place, the market will start to go up slowly. The idea is that there is actually going to be a hand at the tiller of the economy and that this hand seems fairly intelligent. Underconsumption may not be as large a fear because of attention to middle and lower income families. So, short term fall, long term slow rise, drop in volatility. With McCain, we would probably have had a short term increase, long term stagnation due to underconsumption, maintain or increased volatility.
bchadwick, are you suggesting selling options then?
This is like a hand at the tiller when we’re heading over Niagara Falls. I think we still have a gigantic hedge fund mess, a real estate mess, a bad credit situation, a recession, a wave of non-financial company bankruptcies on the way, possible sovereign defaults, a tangled web of CDS on a gajillion dollars in bonds, a domestic auto industry that needs a bailout sooner than it can reasonable be given to them, and an Administration that has every incentive in the world tyo do the big bath thing. I think we have 5 more really major problems on the order of LEH, AIG, etc. and then the fallout. The drop in volatility seems reasonable because this vol is nuts. I wouldn’t be seeling any options, personally, howvere.
I rarely feel confident selling options because I have an extreme distaste for negative gamma. There is possibly an options combo like selling straddles that can control this. I hadn’t thought of that. Hand at the tiller near Niagra Falls. That’s possible. I think Obama is not the economic neophyte a lot of people assume he is, but it’s very possible that our problems are too big for anyone to handle. So my analysis was more about the political effect of an Obama presidency on the economy; the economy still has some fundamental kidney stones it has to pass before things go back to any kind of growth trajectory. I realize that this sounds a bit like Cramer saying he was only talking about Bear Stearns deposits, not their stock; the truth is hat I forgot to factor in my fundamental views on the economy, which suggests that we have a temporary floor until some sector has a siezure of some sort.