prolyl cuz im young. and ■■■■ is on sale.
HP/Nerdy/PYNG - I think I’m goig to buy the Jan 2022 SPY calls. They’re about $3,500 a contract right now.
And two year time horizon is very bullish
But the thing is that you are working with the same info and data as everyone else. To really take strong directional views, you should have a) information that other market participants do not or b) assume that the other market participants interpret the available info and data erroneously. That way your puts might be priced to your advantage. Just buying puts because a short bull amidst a bear isn’t a winning strategy in the long term.
Because it’s cheap. We have all seen firsthand exactly how high asset prices can go based on social mood swings. If that changes back to positive on the heels of a corona virus vaccine inside of a year and a half, then eradicating a social supply chain shock will allow the economic cogs to start churning again with very cheap debt - thus, making a bull case long term for stocks.
And again, it’s cheap.
i aint buying any calls though. it aint that cheap. there is a ■■■■ ton of glut. we are trading at prolly 19x earnings vs 25x. with a shitty economic backdrop and a fuckton of debt that will get downgraded pretty soon. a lot of companies going to die.
just buy equities slowly as those will eventually boucne back. calls are deadly, you have to get timing right, and pricing of premiums to come out ahead. otherwsie there is a high likelihood u’ll lose everything once ur ■■■■ goes otm.
Well I can see your points. But don’t go contrarian with option buying just yet bro. You want the momentum to be in your favor. You gotta be sure when to take the profit and how long you’re gonna hold. The key is the exit of your strategy.
I would just buy IVV right now and dca it, it won’t take long for the rebound. Set the target and take the profit. I know it’s not the big cheese but i’ll take it anyway.
Yeah I can’t time ■■■■, will continue to buy. No puts.
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lol sorry. let me clarify. you have to be selective. the issue with this time period is that low rates have encouraged companies to take massive debt loads they cant take should earnings drop. earnings kept rising until 2018ish and multiples just kept expanding after that which was dumb. lol
anyways to sum you have companies with a ton of debt. they will die. you have companies with no debt. they will pick up the business and live in the long run.
Are you looking at SPY220121C00250000?
Yes. I was. That and the $255.00 strike.
Let’s say you take it now, what’s your exist strategy bro?
Well, it would either go to zero slowly & surely - or, closer to the end of 2021 I’d be sitting on like $50K and then market movements will be negligible.
Fair enough. 
Where the hell is @ohai? I’ve been buying 2x long ETFs everyday since the first big drop. I can’t wait to make all that money he’s always talking about.
Long SSO, QLD, and ROM. Putting my money where ohai’s mouth is. That sounded weird in my head, but I’m going with it.
Edit: I forgot I can summon him now.
i saw that sso. is down like 15% today. prolly 45% drop from the peak. anyways it didnt blow up during 2008, im sure it wont blow up this tiem around either.
The current mkt right now is just day to day driven. IMO, you just stick to or buy the good ones (Stocks or ETFs) that pay you to wait. Pls don’t gamble on your future. You’re a good boy. Be safe.
I’m going to own so many bright blue <10 second cars.
We just had the fourth worst day on the stock market in the entire history since the buttonwood agreement was signed in 1792, the fed last week emergency cut rates 50bps, and today decided to push $500b of liquidity into the repo market… and all of this is synonymous with buy the dip??
In the last 10 minutes of the day, we really accelerated through the lows. Which to me means people aren’t even out there buying the dip yet. You’re going to get taken to town on the stocks you buy right now.
We’re way too early for the “this is the bottom” kind of talk.
I’m not calling a bottom. And, at least for me, this isn’t buying the dip. That implies short term trading. This is qualified money I have sitting in cash waiting for something interesting to happen. This qualifies. Considering my time horizon is at least another 25 years, I’m cool with the levels. That and it’s about 4% of my 401k so it would be hard to care less about daily $ fluctuations.
This is purely for fun. I win either way. Either @ohai is right and I’ll make some money, or I’ll be correct that no one should ever use leveraged ETFs as investments as I watch them go to zero. Totally worth it.