LOL, you did it again, claiming you sold magically at some higher price without posting. Fake News!
You still miss the point. It’s not the same as a stock, because there are no fundamentals, you basically got caught up in trading Pokemon cards. Not too worried about your grand equity proclamation given you have no idea what you’re saying at any given time. Plus, as alluded to earlier, equities have this thing called earnings power and as a result they trend upward over any long holding period (1Y, 5Y, 10Y, 100Y). Lastly, there are defensive and growth stocks, portfolios are formed by them in different amounts at different times…
Back on the topic at hand Ripple may have made some returns over 3 years, but following your transaction history you did not, and it’s still been proven a joke, you selling out at a loss (or holding at a worse one) settles it.
lol but isnt it fantastic that we got to witness something with far greater craziness than the tulip bubble. this is like a once in a century if not more kind of thing.
This is why I said you should - if you want to be taken at all seriously - post your trades right after the fact. Instead you post that you sold at 0.48 but then in the Career thread- https://www.analystforum.com/comment/91834264#comment-91834264 - you said you had unrealized gains implying you were still holding. That was on Aug. 8th and since then Ripple has only gone down never getting close to 0.48.
I’m sure you can appreciate why some people are skeptical?
even though he is finally capitulating, he is prolly still up. my bitcoin friend still has at least double the money he invested. and thats not even counting the money he spent which includes shit like 30k worth of bottles. 50k music vid. a 100k car. and a 500k beachfront condo. all from 100k investment when bitcoin was less around 1k.
anyways its best he learned it while he is young, dumb, and brokeeeeeeee. he prolly couldnt reinvest more at dumber prices because of a lack of cash flow. let this serve as a cautionary tale to all.
If something goes from 25k to 116k then to 78k then I am no genius but that is still 3x return on my money. Sorry I do not live on AF and update my transaction history for a dead thread in real time.
Also, I could argue that some stocks are no better than crypto. ie people wayyyy overpaying for future expectations that most likely won’t ever reflect the multiple or price people are paying currenty. Netflix (way overvalued but still continues on), TSLA (basically on the brink of collapse). In fact, Tesla has NEGATIVE money, so in that regard I think Ripple is still doing ok.
Crypto has died along with Bitcoin like a million times, but this time, it’s different right? There’s no coming back from this
just fyi! 1 can argue that tsla is worst than cryptos because its unprofitable and in a very crappy indsutry. cryptos dont lose or make money.
nflx is somewhat different from tsla. now im not a fan of netflix. but its easy to see why their valuation is high. 117m subscribers. they are growing subscribers by 25% per year. each subscriber pays 10 bucks per month or 120 bucks per year vs pay-tv at 35+, they have room to grow their price (currently raised it by 10%). So that is their growth. Their enterprise value is at 150b. FCF for 2018 is -2B. Lets say 20x of fcf is a fair multiple. So they need a fcf of $7.5b, so they need to increase it by 10b. if we kept everything constant and just raised price, 10b fcf / 117m subscribers / 12 months = that's a 7 increase in price to get to fair valuation or 17 bucks per months vs 35+ for cable. This isnt counting the amount of new subscribers they can get. About 30m/year. that’s 3.6b in new revenue, if we assume 10% op margins, that’s only 360m in fcf. not as meaningful. But some may argue that their true margin is 50%. but even at 1.8b fcf, this is not as meaningful. it would take 6 years even at 50% margin. So their real goal is to create scale then once they are large enough, increase prices as they create original content and cut the licensing fees they pay out to trad tv to keep their costs fixed. anyways there you have it. why netflix is worth so much. they are overvalued but they can easily increase profits. the thing is they would rather continue to aggressively scale up.
I think the point is that the argument looks wrong now even if he made money just out of luck. You don’t want to be the guy who made a small amount 10 years ago, and then anchors that and does not improve decision making in the future. OP’s decision making process deteriorated over the course of this thread.
Otherwise stated, no one gives a crap that you got lucky once, as everything you said after that was wrong. Over time, decision quality matters more.
Dude you said you were up a quarter mill at one point… you are clearly a habitual liar… and a bad one at that as you can’t even keep your story straight even with previous lies publicly posted for reference… SAD!
Those figures are REALIZED not UNREALIZED. I held 105.5k XRP at all time highs, and can prove it. it was approximately 2.84 on Jan 8th I believe on Bitstamp (the exchange I used) so that’s just a tad under 300k. Minus 25k principal actually puts me at 275k profit at one point.
I may be completely wrong about Ripple and XRP in 5 years, who knows, but I still do not see anything out of the ordinary that the whole crypto market has not done before. ie crash like 80-90 percent. I’ve stated many times in this thread that I think crypto has zero chance short term IF the economy erodes, and we have a downturn, whereas I think most of you believe when that downturn comes it will be the end of crypto altogether.
That’s what I do not agree with you guys on at all. When have I ever proclaimed to be some investing guru though? Also, so what if my decisions and views were incorrect for the summer? I think overall still profiting significantly on the trade is just fine.
I get the NFLX bottom up story, don’t get me wrong. But are they truly some revolutionary in their industry? That to me is debatable. I think they have stiff competition and when they go to raise prices after scaling, I think smart money is in for a surprise when customers make the switch to a substitute. If they raise their prices too much, I think this can happen. Also, if the economy looses steam and things get ugly, people will cancel subscriptions to save money and pirate shows online for free like I do Just my take but that’s a pretty nice analysis you provided there!
So in one post Ripple goes from 38x to 3x for you. Exactly my point and the definition of a dumb trade. Quality stocks go 3x all the time on fundamentals, which this was not. Claiming this time is different is ignoring the fact that from peak to now we are at deep fractions. Rereading this thread may be educational to your ignorance. Is it equivalent to the worst value stocks as you claimed? Possibly, but that is precisely my point. If you can’t spot the sucker at the poker table…
To sum it up more precisely, better decision makers aren’t bragging about $53K gains. /thread
yep yep. this is really how you want to evaluate every investment. if you cant do it. dont buy it.
anyways netflix is revolutionary in many ways. but the biggest reason why they are killing it is because it is convenient to use.
back then you use to depend on when media firms decide a show will air. now its on demand.
you used to be tied down to your cable provider at a certain location, now you just need a login with internet.
netflix can create a customized suggestion for you to watch based off your ratings, or the ratings of others, or even what you and most people watch.
people use to guess content that will be popular. now based off how people rate a show, they have a higher accuracy of determining winners.
lastly they are profitable. that is prolly the most important thing. because at the end of the day, the price they charge customers is really cheap relative to what a competing product can do for a consumer so there is more upside in fundamentals to come.
the price at which you pay though is kind of important. cuz ultimately you want the cash flow to exceed the price you pay by a lot!
anyways try to do that with everything you invest in. and your decision making will improve.
yep yep. this is really how you want to evaluate every investment. if you cant do it. dont buy it.
anyways netflix is revolutionary in many ways. but the biggest reason why they are killing it is because it is convenient to use.
back then you use to depend on when media firms decide a show will air. now its on demand.
you used to be tied down to your cable provider at a certain location, now you just need a login with internet.
netflix can create a customized suggestion for you to watch based off your ratings, or the ratings of others, or even what you and most people watch.
people use to guess content that will be popular. now based off how people rate a show, they have a higher accuracy of determining winners.
lastly they are profitable. that is prolly the most important thing. because at the end of the day, the price they charge customers is really cheap relative to what a competing product can do for a consumer so there is more upside in fundamentals to come.
the price at which you pay though is kind of important. cuz ultimately you want the cash flow to exceed the price you pay by a lot!
anyways try to do that with everything you invest in. and your decision making will improve.
I did not purchase XRP early enough to realize or even have unrealized gains of 38x. However, If I would have made my 25k purchase of XRP in January of last year instead of the third week of November like I did at .23 cents, I would have DEFINITELY sold it over 2 dollars because I would have been a millionaire several times over. Crazy the difference 10 months being “late” to the crypto party can make and I still made 3x.
I actually remember sitting at my computer though, logged into Bitstamp, staring at my account balance when it was trading at 2.78 and asking my gf, “Should I sell this?”. She came home a few days earlier telling me a story to the effect of “OMG my friends bf was talking about Ripple at work today” to which I gave pause and said, “hmmm idk if that’s a good thing or not…kinda feel like it’s not” ie, the shoe shine boy giving stock tips before the great depression.
Around that time, I saw orders of ppl quietly selling XRP. 3 million dollar trades, 2.5 million dollar sell orders, etc. Those were the ppl who bought in January of 2017 or earlier if I were to guess. Now? they’re probably retired because they just randomly threw money at it beginning of last year.
Just my take but that’s a pretty nice analysis you provided there!