Snap Chat IPO

Water Cooler Investing
#61

Oh snap(chat)

#62

In other news, I went browsing on Snapchat the other day. I honestly never looked at anything besides what my friends post and what is sent to me. I was amazed at the beauty of the news content from the old school media players. I can really see a future where they are a media distribution platform. No idea the likelihood of it, but the content was legit.

#63

the targeting of the ads is the main issue. which i imagine should be an easy fix. i saw an airline ad for singapore just today. the last time i took a plane, was when i went to chicago 3 years ago. its all fucked up.

in any case, advertisers are paying top dollar despite this failure so i imagine they will only pay more once they fix this and get better.

also old media invested in snapchat, in addition they are creating content for snapchat where they take the upfront costs and they share ad revenue with snapchat.

also i just did a test run. i saw 10x snaps before i saw an ad. they can easily cut this to 2x, and create organic revenue. they also decrease the frequency of the ads, as you use it more on 1 sitting.

they are currently expecting 800m in 2017 and 2b in 2018. i believe it is easily doable. i would essentially buy it at 7x revenue or $14b or 12 bucks/share.i also think once they generate enough revenue, anything above a certain point is pure profit.

http://fortune.com/2017/07/10/snapchat-snap-stock-ipo-lock-up/

as for the lock up, i dont really care if people sell their shares, i care more about whether these guys are going to further dilute the shares through issuance in the future, and this will be a function of growth.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/03/17/5-signs-snap-incs-high-growth-days-are-over.aspx

here are the growth issues. people are worried about daily user growth, and not focusing on their ability to monetize the current base which imo they can easily create their growth through.

i cant speak for facebook’s instagram, but i avoid that shit like the plague cuz my parents and older relatives are on it.

#64

Tried to short it 2 weeks ago and was told “Shares of SNAP currently not available to short”. Yikes.

#65

the euphoria stage is long over and now it’s back to reality. wouldn’t touch it with a ten-foot pole.

#66

$15.33 at the moment. There is still time for me to be wrong of course.

#67

i dont know a single person that owns SNAP stock.

unless they are lying lol

#68

down to $13.81… just above the IPO price of $13.65. What you feeling on this?

#69

^I’m pretty sure $17 was the IPO price. Several recent public tech/fad companies like fitbit, gopro saw their share prices go significantly below the IPO price. Snap is headed to single digits I think.

#70

https://phys.org/news/2017-07-ipo-snap-stock-struggling.html

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2017/07/22/snapchat-renewed-pressure-share-lock-up-ends/

https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/05/24/snaps-stock-based-compensation-digging-through-the.aspx

http://www.businessinsider.com/snap-q1-earnings-results-2017-5

http://www.business2community.com/brandviews/mainstreethost/instagram-stories-vs-snapchat-stories-update-01887000#Ob872LTVlgjiJ0pi.97

http://www.businessinsider.com/instagram-vs-snapchat-which-is-the-better-app-2017-7

#71

nerdy get the cash ready homeboy

#72

haha ok ok ok. it hasnt hit $12, but im backing out, i cant lower myself to buy an unprofitable company. but mark my words, this company will go all the way up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y2ak_oBeC-I

12 is appropriate price though.

#73

YOLO bruh

#74

im all about that. im not a pussy bro. my principles are preventing me. lol

#75

Well, if people did not buy stock of unprofitable companies, they would not buy AMZN, TSLA, or others also. SNAP is unprofitable, but it is also in a competitive field with fickle users and no real advantage, and it is run by dickweeds.

#76

tsla is still unprofitable.

amzn is actualy really profitable already. its just really overvalued. like 200x earnings. or 50x fcf

and i wouldnt buy them either.

#77

It is all about the cash flows with Amazon. There are a ton of non-cash charges flowing through their income statement that make them look less profitable. They generated $10B of FCF in 2016 and that growth rate has been very impressive. The valuation is still pretty rich at >20x EV/NTM EBITDA but its actually an investable company that generates free cash flow. I don’t get the Whole Foods thing but it is a legitimate investment and different than SNAP and TSLA.

I agree on Tesla – I am short if anything but at least they offer the world a productive product. SNAP is just some stupid company that burns tons of money. There will probably be a vicious short squeeze on SNAP at some point driving it higher but it is going lower long-term.

#78

folks compare SNAP to FB when it went public but what folks are forgetting is that FB was generating very nice FCF while snap is burning thru cash

#79

amaozn capex was 7.4bil last year and its FCF was over 9BIL wowzers

Operating Cash Flow USD Mil 1,405 1,697 3,293 3,495 3,903 4,180 5,475 6,842 11,920 16,443 16,806 Cap Spending USD Mil -224 -333 -373 -979 -1,811 -3,785 -3,444 -4,893 -4,589 -6,737 -7,419 Free Cash Flow USD Mil 1,181 1,364 2,920 2,516 2,092 395 2,031 1,949 7,331 9,706 9,387

#80

Fb was 8 years old. Snapchat was 6 years old. Snapchat is doubling revenue every year. Expecting 2b next year and prolly 4b after. If anything snap chat had an early ipo