So this is how I view China as well. I think the China fanboys are wrong and that the next decade will not play out as they hope from a relative perspective as they sort through the population time bomb and some of the credit growth. That said, they will get through the growing pains and when they do the 2030âs I think will see them on a lasting path to true wealth/power/stability/etc in which theyâll surpass the US at least in aggregate.
i think china has been 1 of the fastest growing nations since 1970s. so i dont think learning english matters very much for them.
if we even take a longer view the evidence for china succeeding is more likely, china has usually been the number 1 country in terms of economic powerhouses for the majority of the past 2000 years.
the only time they ever lost their spot is because they lost some kind of war. with nukes acting as a deterrent, a 1 party system with highly centralized powers. i think they will take the lead and retain it.
their credit growth imo is justified as they have increased their incomes. population growth may be an issue, but this country does not care about its old people. they will die at the appropriate time.
Note when the boom in working class population began. Anyhow, anyone can grow off of a per capita base of nothing.
Not even remotely true.
They lost it because theyâve been so focused on top down regimes they havenât been innovative for the past 300 years. 60 years ago they were eating each other.
The credit growth far outstrips their GDP growth and has surged in the past decade even as their GDP growth sharply tailed off with the working age population. Hard to grow when your work force is shrinking which it has been since 2010 (when GDP growth peaked). Again:
bs i think you need to learn about chinese history. and the charts above are pretty useless.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/2000-years-economic-history-one-chart/
enjoy. its kind of funny how people talk about rome so much. literally china was arguably much bigger than them even at romeâs peak.
also waht amazing with china isnt that they grew gdp per capita from nothing. but they did it with such a massive population. its amazin at how they made everyone productive.
ultiamtely i think they will grow their productivity even further, cuz even their current gdp per capita at like 10k is shit. anyways this whole thing is silly. we both agree that china will be greater than the us. all we are arguing about is a 10 vs 50 years? btw im not saying 10. but i know in my heart within my lifetime. china will be greater than the us. unless we stop them.
Tanks for the comedic relief but pretty sure Iâve forgotten more on the topic than youâve ever known. Saying working age population doesnât drive economic growth is up there with most of your other economic âideasâ. I donât have the time to go through the dance we always do where you act smug, we go through a few posts and then ultimately you come back with oh ok, I guess youâre right didnât not know that and I give you the âthe more you know memeâ then we laugh and move on.
Equating aggregate GDP in China on arbitrarily drawn borders without weighing it by population and calling that being âa powerhouseâ makes no sense when the people are living at a lower standard than the rest of the world.
Ok ok, agree to disagree. High five and on we go.
lichtenstein must be what you define as an economic powerhouse.
Moreso than Zimbabwe
zimbabwe! the highly advanced nation that slashed 12 0s to curb hyperinflation? are we talking about the same zimbabwe that kept printing fiat currency to fund their day to day activities? that zimbabwe is a forward thinker! many countries such as the beautiful venezuela have followed their great vision. this is what we call modern finance nowaday!
The question is if they survive the old wave. That stresses any country. I suspect itâll be worse for one thatâs been growing so fast. My time in China was short but it seemed people were happy because their lives got better. Who knows how it goes if thatâs not the case. I donât really care about if they are better than USA, but itâll be interesting. And I think the system is more fragile given the centralization. Works really well until you get an idiot running things
bumping for relevancy due to q3 gdp 2020 reports.
anyways
us gdp in the last 3 years 2020 to 2018
20.2b (exp), 21.4b, 20.6b.
China GDP respectively:
15.2b (exp), 14.4b, 13.6b.
Assuming 2% growth for us. and 5% for china. they will meet around 8 years. covid has boosted it!
givenâs china age demographics. their aging population wont start to be a problem until 15 years from now.
i think centralization is a better system of government. the increasing divide in the us imo is more counterproductive and is really tough to watch. cant wait to see the election results.
Centralization is fo sho the best way to go as long as the people in charge are competent and put the public good first. This seems to be very difficult to do, hence the history is full of quick and spectacular collapses of such systems.
The more I read about China, the more Iâm concerned for western countries.
We âplanâ for next 4-5 yearsâŚChina PLANS for the next 100 years, if not even longer.
If I ever have a kid, Iâll make sure (s)he learns Chinese.