Here, here! Seems you two found some common grounds 
Alright man, define what you mean by cured. You are saying if we experience deflation there is nothing we can do to thwart it?
Here you go again playing chess - the reason americanās have no savings and a ton of debt are explicitly due to inflated asset prices.
So most of what weāre back into was discussed before including what I meant by cured. You are going back into the asset prices thing which was also thoroughly gone over before. Which leads me to think this is a good point to hit the breaker because weāre about to start repeating ourselves.
^you owe me a beer
part deux!!!
yo V what u think is happening tomorrow??
does china have the balls to go 1 on 1 with the great one (trump)
They canāt. Thatās the subtle point of what he did. US exports to China amount to about $130B vs their approximately $500B of exports to the US. With $50B already in place, by adding $100B heās making the point heās been making all along and throwing their tit-for-tat response (āItās only polite to reciprocateā) back at them. When youāre ina $370B trade deficit, the trade war is yours to win.
Agreed with bs trumps policies will have a wider effect than chinas just due to the size of our trade deficit against them. Consumers should stop consuming meaningless shit from China and think of ways to beat them in every single thing. They getting to close to us superiority, itās time to check them hard
Itās really uncanny agreeing with Nerdy but basically what heās saying. A lot of Americans have been asleep at the wheel the entire āMade in China 2025ā policy put in place in 2013 is essentially a frontal assault on western manufacturing using tech transfers and tariffs as the tools to drive it. People still act like itās 1990 and Chinaās making widgets while we do higher end stuff. The reality is rising middle class incomes and competition in the region are pushing China upmarket as a more advanced manufacturing base with the lower tier production moving to less developed newly emerging economies. If the US sleeps on this, it wonāt be steel mills and aluminum smelters, weāll be losing Boeing, GM and Tesla. China just locked down the majority of the worldās cobalt supply (used in batteries : electric vehicles) in the last six months, they know where their sights are. Oddly enough, Trump seems to be the right guy at the right time.
When Boeing signed that $37B deal with China, it came with an agreement to build a plant through a minority JV accompanied by tech transfer in China. Similarly when China made the decision last year to move to 10% ethanol fuels by 2020 it seemed like a real win. The US is 60% of ethanol production because of our corn and energy advantage, so by free trade and comparative advantage weād be the obvious supplier right? Except China wanted to develop that industry domestically so in January 2017, they raised the tariffs on ethanol from 5% to 30% and again this year during this trade feud from 30% to 45%. Point being, this current account deficit isnāt an accident, theyāve been levying tariffs and abusing trade law at will with no response, the US is not the one thatās out of line on this.
can this work?
https://www.cnbc.com/2018/04/05/us-china-trade-war-fears-gary-locke-on-a-non-tariff-strategy.html
i see different numbers being tossed around, what is the most legit source?
btw chinese companies are snapping up lithium also, have no idea what u.s. and europe are doing they are so far behind
Census Bureau for aggregate deficit numbers, there should be a field in BB. My own numbers were approximate and off recollection but should be close. Points of difference may include full imports / exports (includes services) vs goods only, and using trailing numbers vs current month annualized.
https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/data/index.html
For the Chinese numbers I think its Commerce Department. Iām away from my BB today.
Also, I do think reciprocal investment restrictions will help and are on their way.
lol it makes sense for them to restrict us because the rising incomes, with a huge young population is there, and we still own 33% of the worldās wealth.
for us to restrict them doesnt make sense. sicne the us has flat incomes, and an old population. plus generally our markets are usually the most expensive in the world in terms of multiples.
the largest issue is that they are out earning us. and are crimping us access to their potential. if you had a company that is growing, you would not sell it to others for a quick buck. smarter to keep it wait until its reach its growth potential then ipo it to the suckers.
why did I read that?
More the point lads, whenās the next Boston drinks?
Yeah but youāre missing the main aspect here. You need to balance a current account deficit with a capital account surplus. We have a huge capital account surplus with China, partly in treasuries but increasingly in FDI. Cutting them off will increase the cost of running the CA deficit and help bring it back into alignment sort of like tightening up lending standards to curb a housing market.
on the old topic, i donāt even know why you guys fought so long about inflation v deflation. slight inflation promotes investment and helps prevent people going to cash as there is a huge opportunity cost with doing so. the downside of slight inflation is that this likely creates more wild business cycles as you provide more time to let the economy get out of hand, and then you have too-big-to-fail type situations and you have to bail them out to get back to slight inflation. the true upside with targeting slight inflation is that longer economic/business cycles allows more time and steady investment into ideas, truly testing new technologies out before quashing them, and likely results in higher productivity in the long-run.
on the new topic, taxing chinese IT and upper end stuff makes a lot more sense than taxing inputs. let them make all the steel and aluminum and trinkets they want, iām okay with some defense of finished product manufacturing.
I owe the first few rounds apparently.
My thoughts on inflation:
Inflation bad because price discovery is harder and if itās hyperinflation there is loss of trust in currency.
deflation bad because itās usuaully caused by loss of credit. Which typically happens in down cycles
whats the real price of money