I think right now is an opportune time to buy some puts on the vix. Today’s fear is higher than the greek default crisis or the PIIGS default crisis. Aside from the market being completely overbought, what news justifies these level of fear?
Nope. It’s already been discussed many times on this thread. It’s called financial/risk modeling!
Since I’m long SPX puts it depends how low the S&P goes, with that offset it’s essentially mathematically impossible, but of course nothing is ever impossible. Hell, the idiots crowded into long-S&P probably have more risk than I do, they just don’t know it. I know my risk and have been positioning hedges for years.
USG is bankrupt, economic center moving East, US stock valuations totally made up (you can’t pump valuations with ZIRP/QE and have them not reverse when you raise rates). Americans try to ignore reality, but smart money knows in the back of their minds it’s a house of cards, just like they were ready to run like hell when subprime popped. I’m simultaneously short vol, and know just how bad things could really get when this bubble pops.
Now I realllllllly get where they are coming from. RIP SVXY and XIV. Literally. Unreal. So glad I moved all into crypto in November. I will be better off for it in the long run. Hope you weren’t in those ETFs
Yeah, XIV got crushed in afterhours. I actually went in to look if I could long-it at $15, but IB is currently showing a margin requirement of 800%. That’s odd given that you can’t lose more than 100%, maybe that is the margin for both short/long. But that kinda makes it hard for the fund to recover when we can’t even buy!
Insanity!!! No position but did consider a possible vol trade back in the fall. Terrible stuff. Highly doubt all those that lost will have any legal recourse on paper.