Well, market heading up, so I just sold some calls on ES, but expiring this Friday. I wanna actually get short S&P futures if we end the week over 2110 (don’t wanna just play with options). Also sold some 2025 puts expiring Friday, both scenarios can’t happen. There is probably some silly derivatives name for this awesome trade…
It’s called a strangle. Kill it PA! Die ES, DIE!
The dislocation between the bond and the equity market is staggering. PA, we are up against a very very strong adversary - central banks. Have you looked at the italian banks? I’m seeing vast opportunity to profit if I can time, what i foresee as the inevitable, the bailout.
Haven’t been paying much attention. Edit: moved this post over to the main thread on the topic.
Well, I’m still darn skeptical, S&P500 holding at 2100 today.
Sold covered calls against all my AAPL stock, and my whole China A-shares portfolio. Between now and “Trump or no Trump” thinking low probability of mega-rally. Gotta make some $$$ in these sideways markets dammit.
Market going wild, very exciting, shorted futures. Sorry to be such a party pooper S&P!
^I really dislike your opinions in the WC but we are spot on when it comes to trading. I’m riding with you.
ooooo! we are right at the June high of 2121 (SPX). I’m going to wait and see if it rejects it there. If it does I’m going to short promptly. This is a good trade. I can put in a stop at the all time high of 2134 and have all the way down as a profit zone. I like that risk reward ratio! I think I will get my exposure going short SPY.
EDIT: ok, I’m in. I’m taking the resistance going on at the June high level as a sign to go ahead and take the risk. I’m still using caution though. I got the risk reward skew I wanted by writing an August ITM vertical call spread on SPY (strike 210.0). Got $71 to risk $29 (per contract). I plan to buy it back on the next drawdown rather than wait until expiration. In the event we just keep shooting into outer space… Well, my loss is defined!
Yeah, I like the risk/reward profile as I see it (though my probability calcs could always be crap). If I get assigned on my short call options today, then I’m roughly market neutral.
Seems like a lot of resistance above 2100. And what is realistically max-pain? Perhaps it actually hits 2200 in three months, and so a 5% loss, offset by my long portfolio gain. Shrug oh well, I’m hedged and not going anywhere then. More likely, within three months BAM down to 2000 on some worry (earnings are bad, high valuations, global earnings are bad, brexit, trump threat, china, etc).
Make some money in sideways market seems the most likely outcome, but some probability of not participating in late bull-market upside.
Yikes! Up to 2128 on SPX! My original plan was to wait for rejection at the June high and catch a short on the way down. I got impatient and took the trade when I did. Impatients! The bane of my trading.
Mehh… at least we are ripe for a pull back next week. I mean, we are up like 140pts in a week and a half. Common, get real.
I guess since my 401k is substantially larger than my PA i should be happy today but my trades took a bath. I just doubled down. I thought the mantra was good news = sell off (allows fed to raise rates).
Friday options now expired, I got assigned bigtime – now 115% short. Game on S&P500, let’s fight!
@WYG well, other than the VIX call which expired, I hope you still have some positions on. Earnings start next week… which starts with the banks. That might put folk in a “WTF” mood again and we will get a pull back.
I was mad I was impatient at first, but now I’m glad I took the deal I got. Even though the market went up 10pts after I took the trade, the spread is still going for the same premium. I figure, even if the market goes up, as long at it retraces back to where it is right now by August I should be able to buy back the spead for a profit. Overall… I’m happy with my trade. If the VIX offers me a similar deal I will take it. For now, the put spreads are just stupid.
can we restart a new thread and call it “Die market, DIE”
Oh right, that little thing about valuations being related to earnings!
Some uncertainty is what we need, and that could be it. Although in the past they have just talked themselves into bull-mode after some s/t fluxuations “well, earning suck yet again, but analysts say they will be better next time”. Late bull, optimism is a habit! 
And then there’s the Fed. Every time for years now, when the market assumes the Fed is out of the picture, the Fed reasserts themselves back into the picture! My money says that as the market get peaky, the Fed attempts to manage it down again with “well, actually we MIGHT still raise rates”, everyone takes them seriously again, and so they can manage the market UP later when they DON’T raise rates.
I though you might find comfort in these guys… who are managing their ES short position from 2000!!! I would be freaking out… but they are totally cool about it. Just trading though it. (forward to 25:00 in the video)
https://www.tastytrade.com/tt/shows/confirm-and-send/episodes/defending-positions-07-07-2016
Yeah, I plan on doing nothing during Q3, just sit and wait, their move. At end of H1 up 9.1% vs 2.1% global stocks (ACWI). So now I just hedge, and run out the clock. Either I outperform more with any brief market shock, or the benchmark gains on me as I go nowhere (but it has a lot of distance to close). Defense!
I’m taking a bath right now. I need these bank stocks to report horrid earnings.
Sorry man. The bad news is it is proabably going to get worse before it gets better. If I was just looking at the chart not knowing what it was, I would have actually bought yesterday! The good news is where ever this nonsense is going, it’s not going to go in a strait line. Best case senario is something triggers the markets to get back down in to it’s holding pattern. However, it is likely the consolation prize will be to get out on a half decent pullback with a few bruises.
so far for myself:
choice of exposure and leverage… well done KMD
letting impatients get in the way with what the chart was saying… when will I learn!!
what size do you trade