Nice call BS. I need to test drive a Tesla one of these days.
I cam across this hosted on Zero Hedge, http://adventuresincapitalism.com/2018/10/25/q3-results-secured/?utm_source=AIC&utm_campaign=e78d00bb92-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2018_10_25_12_55&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_cb61762784-e78d00bb92-31426413
brings up some decent points in TSLA’s disclosures.
Any idea why Accounts Rec. doubled QoQ and depreciation dropped so dramatically?
This article is retarded, A/R ballooning during a production ramp is typical and would be a cash use. Depreciation per car also likely dropped because they have been de-automating some of their production particularly with assembly line 4, at some point you’re also going to see assets fully depreciate and depending on the depreciation schedule they chose, it is most likely not linear per car but uses a form of step down. I mean there are a myriad of reasons this could happen, but they’re all irrelevant. The comically inept part about this article is that each of these “ground breaking” criticisms would have actually reduced the cash number in most calculations. An easy way to get around being caught up in an Enron is to focus on cash flow accounting, which actually strengthened with the quality of earnings and this clown completely ignored. Great work all around everybody!
It all really boils down to this statement at the end:
“Disclosure: Funds that I manage are long Tesla 2020 put spreads”
Swan do we buy or sell here
So I’m closing out my calls today. But plan to buy shares with the procedes. Just expensive to hold theta without immediate catalysts. So I think its a buy. I still don’t think any of the underweight SS analysts get it, or maybe they’re waiting until next week to update their recommendations. TSLA is still going to be expanding production through the quarter and had about 10k vehicles in transit to delivery when the quarter ended, I think production will be around 100k in 4Q from 80k in this Q and they are constantly altering the production process and the car itself to make it cheaper to produce although it seems to be settling closer to where they want it so the cost component is going to continue to come down and we’ll get a full quarter of production at the lower cost rate. I don’t think the analysts are used to auto manufacturers that implement design changes in real time outside of model year frameworks. That said, on the cash side they will be dealing with a few smaller slugs of debt coming due and then the accelerated build of their Shanghai factory although some of that will be funded locally. The thing is, their making huge strides on the autonomous driving (the new inhouse designed chip in 1Q19 will be a game changer) and they will continue to price somewhere between autos and tech companies given the Apple like premium they bring to their products. Another huge potential catalyst is that the EV rebate may get the vehicle production cap removed this year. Its just hard for me to paint a convincing downside at this stage. The best thing I’ve seen today was some clown say Tesla could trade at $50 given traditional auto multiples. What auto company has 20% gross margins and sales up 63% YoY? Do you even known how multiples work?
big congrats bs. almsot 1b in fcf for 1 quarter. still too early for me. but i bet they going to kill it.
I don’t follow this at all but I see the Twitter shorts. Are you worried at all about parking lots full of cars around the country and shorting their vendors to manage cash? Lots of people think the numbers just don’t tie together this quarter.
Shorting their vendors to make cash is normal for anyone squeezing working cap. Boeing literally pushed suppliers to the brink of insolvency so badly they had to give them lifeline loans to avoid their bankruptcy during this last ramp. The parking lots full of cars are their distribution centers. Nobody calls out Ford for parking lots full of cars (aka dealerships). Also as Tesla noted if you look at those photos those cars completely turn over in days. People clinging to this stories are full on delusional because they built a cottage industry around a boogie man that didn’t exist.
All the shorts are wrong…BS is right…only the time will tell!
I mean time did just tell, you lose. All these cuck’s running around whadaboutwhadabout. Tesla couldn’t deliver cars, they did it, they couldn’t deliver a profit, they did it, they couldn’t generate cash, they just did it in crushing fashion. The same shorts you’re referring to include genius’s like Einhorn the Einstein with Greenlight showing losses of 26% YTD because the moron had the common sense to short Amazon alongside Tesla. Chanos hasn’t beaten the market since the financial crisis (kidding but its not far off). Careful the company you keep!
Generally I agree with Black Swan, but man does he come across as an a ss sometimes.
^ like he tunes the rabbit ear on his tv
hahahaha you humor me. Please enjoy going long on TSLA, my horizon is years, not months. While you’re at it…please add TSLA to your 401k and let’s see if the company is around when you retire.
What about revenue growth with op ex falling to levels below any peer?
We need recession, TSLA won’t survive.
Musk knows it and is attempting to distance himself. He’s sucks at everything, except opportunism.
musk is a visionary, i hope he takes market sahre from the german manufacturers!
What is your guys take on Tesla’s situation? Shitty earnings and new efforts to raise some dough but stock price is not getting a beating for now.
Black Swan is in the market scooping up shares.
People are relieved that Tesla has raised cash and is less likely to go bankrupt in the short term. However, next, they must pay attention to some emerging issues. These include aging model lineup, running out of fanboys*, and Tesla being overpriced for the Chinese market. With Elon burning all cash in his giga factory, they might not be investing in research at the same rate as before.
*Analagous to how Camaro was a big hit until everyone who wanted a Camaro already had a Camaro.