yep dcf is a great approach. i like how he always says this is what i beleive their story is like. you can have a difference in opinion, but for me, this is what i think. and then he explains why that is what he uses for estimates. lol
Most naysayers at this stage frankly haven’t done the work. Chanos hasn’t been relevant in a decade, guy himself is a fraud.
I really think most of these people that were calling full value at $500 are just looking at the chart and not bothering to dig in and do the work. The fact that Nerdy seemed surprised to find out what consensus was speaks volumes. The haterade isn’t even aging well on a 3 day basis at this stage.
Lol yea consensus is bs though. Even next years estimates by sell side analyst is shit.
also you have to understand I don’t follow the story at all because it’s not my type of stock. It’s too young. It’s profit less. It’s auto. And it has a lot of debt.
i follow it because i like Elon. I like spacex. I love the cars. I love the features. The Tesla x doors that open like billionaire doors. It is the new status symbol for anyone who is successful. And most importantly I want a car that drives itself.
I’m sticking to my guns here, lol: https://www.analystforum.com/comment/91846517#comment-91846517
I would trim some gains at this point though, current run is a little too parabolic.
Do you think any of the common criticisms of the financial statements are valid? As a former sell side person, I of course am skeptical of them actually identifying any issues with them. Seems like every quarter there is some weird issue showing up on my Twitter feed from all the TSLAQ guys
I don’t think there’s anything material.
Dam, I’m such a bonehead for selling TSLA to buy NFLX.
Fuck me.
lol musk at it again. if he thought his share price was so expensive. why didnt he just issue shares at the high price. ridiculous. plz sue him for his honesty.
Guy cracks me up. TSLA won cars and everyone knows it. All the majors are in survival mode and he’s stretching the lead.
Einhorn has been embarrassing himself on this for the last two years I don’t know why he doesn’t take the L and walk away. Would barely surprise me if TSLA was $3,000 in 2025.
5-1 split on TSLA announced today. I really really wanted to buy this a year ago and didn’t, and I really really want to buy it now but I won’t. It sounds like they’re taking over the world, and there’s some serious money in their Intellectual property, but I have no idea how to value this thing.
Sold some industrials and bought REITs today. In all likelihood I’ll stick to my old man portfolio that’s served me well. But I’m tempted to pick up a few overpriced leaps just to say I have exposure.
Side note, anybody following Starlink? The guy is going to single handedly take a hammer to traditional ISPs along with the car manufacturers. Supposedly they’re launching in Canada in 2020. Eventually they’ll be providing cell coverage anywhere on the planet for a monthly subscription that will be a fraction of what we’re currently paying. Just wait until that goes public…
I don’t think I could ever get comfortable with a stock with Tesla. At least, not with the amount of time I’m willing to put into it! I do find these stock split and stock then goes up situations interesting. If I was an academic, I’d want to study that. Doesn’t make much sense to me. I had to tie my excess cash up in a illiquid investment to prevent me from buying a Tesla, though. That says something since I typically don’t buy luxury items.
Completely agree… the split should theoretically have no impact on the stock price, yet it’s up 10% today so here we are.
Good friend of mine recently bought a model 3. Absolutely loves it. And I have to admit, after taking it for a spin myself it is a beautiful car. The “auto pilot” is a great feature if you’re stuck on a long, crowded highway. He just paid 10k additional for the full bore auto pilot, which is not yet usable and there’s no timeframe as to when, or if, it ever will be.
Apparently, they’re going to keep upping the price of the auto pilot each year. Some people actually look at as an investment, that will be grandfathered in if you ever sold the car. Or better yet, use the car as a driverless Uber while you’re at work.
Who knows if any of that will come to pass, but hard to knock their business model. Disruptive innovation at its finest. I’d love to buy one, but there’s no chance I’m dropping 75k CDN on a car.
ive been thirsting for the model 3 for the last couple years. i remember when there was stilll a tax credit in cali and the autopilot was only 3k. i watched so many videos and actually rode the car and vistited the store after reading about it on consumer reports. it had like a score of 9.8 out of 10 or something ridiculous. anyways the goal is for the e class to die and to replace with that model 3 assuming it is still top selling luxury car. we get data on its longevity and repair costs and that tsla is still profitable. and i am still employed in the us or my net worth is about 1.5m.
You have to understand if you look at stocks in a vacuum and only use theory to guide you, ok no impact on price. Retail investors are a huge slug of the market as we witnessed this summer. Technicals tell you you just opened up TSLA to a much larger swath of the market. That definitely impacts price which is really supply and demand.
Yeah fair enough. I don’t know, it’s hard to value anything these days. I’m not an analyst - despite holding the elusive CFA, and for the most part fundamentals don’t seem to matter these days anyhow. Throw a dart at a board and you’ll have an equal chance of hitting a 12 month price target as some of the pro stock analysts. I receive gobs of daily research reports… none of them account for the general stupidity of the mass retail investor. And nearly all of them are dead wrong if you look back on past calls. TSLA seems like a short, but I’m not crazy enough to do that. And even if you were right it’d be tough to hold out long enough. Nothing in this post has any point, or makes any sense. This is pure rambling. I’ll get another beer. Carry on.
Why does that matter when buying fractional shares is widely available? It’s not very convincing to me. Maybe this mattered 10 years ago
Most retail types are not aware of fractional shares. It’s a very real effect and absolute price level does matter.
Fractional shares still aren’t that common. Maybe for robinhood. But majority of brokerages still don’t do it. I know fidelity doesn’t. As for Tesla, It’s a great product much like amzn or NFLX, but I am not down to buy. Back the the issue was the lack of profits. Now it’s mostly due to a growth too small to justify its current multiple. At those prices, it’s pretty much gambling much like venture capital. Hell even SoftBank sad something similar recently. I guess they are running out of unicorns to fund so they are going to public markets hahaha.