What can we take away from the recent rally following a 50 bps rate cut?

The euro and most European markets are outperforming the US currently. Is France the new Greece?

You too can be part of the French military-industrial complex.
It’s far from clear to me exactly what this fund is. It almost sounds like they’re saying that France wants to increase her military expenditure but doesn’t have the money, so they’re going to use this fund instead, in which case, how would an investor ever get their money back?

I have no idea. Also the size of the fund is just peanuts. I’m not sure what you can do with 450 meur in when it comes to military spending.

1 Like

Indeed, the GDP of France in 2023 was €2,565B, and they’re talking about raising defense spending from 2% of GDP, which would be €51.3B, to 3 to 3.5% of GDP. €450M would be <1\% of current defense spending.

edit: added:
Google tells me that an F-22 fighter jet costs US$350M. At current exchange rates, €450M would be 1.4 F-22s.
Aircraft carriers cost US$13B each.

1 Like

the 2 trillion i nsavigns is sproead across multiple years supposedly. govt spending is 6 trillion or about 20% of GDP at 30 trillion ish. a 2 trillion cut in 1 year is a recession.
government cuts though is better in the long run as government spending is extremely wasteful. it is a good thing to lay off government workers. they have too many safeties and are entitled. i call it white collar welfare.
overall what should happen is lower rates if we can cut the deficit. the higher rates we have now is really due to qt from the fed. they have shrunk their bs by 2 trillion for a good minute now. its almost astounding that are rates are still below historical averages at 4% ish vs 6%

@GorillaNerd I hope you didn’t sell puts again :smiley:

image

3 Likes

Oh yea I went full Altair on it. The premiums were too juicy

2 Likes

3 Likes

image

2 Likes

I’m still up 10% ytd vs -8% for spy. But yea overall for entire net worth I lost 50k in 1 day which is equivalent to my first salary. Crazy how far we’ve come!

2 Likes

Good point. When your portfolio’s daily volatility is in five figures, you’ve done something right, even if today’s move was negative.

1 Like


Noooooooo I’m about to be a not a millionaire. If you round down that’s basically a poor.

Pour some liquor homies and kindly buy the dip.

1 Like

You’re ok~ walk it off.

2 Likes

Trump says he’s ready to talk as new stock market losses fuel tariff chaos | CNN Politics

1 Like

That’s a misleading headline on the part of CNN. Trump was ready to talk before he imposed the tariffs and his readiness to talk has not changed.

A 10% dip in two days! What a beautiful day! Such a massive pullback. The SPY traded as low as $480 and closed at $507. Still, in my humble opinion, the market is massively overvalued, and there are no deep discounts.

Trump Tariffs Live: China strikes back with 84% tariffs as investors ‘sell America’ amid escalating trade war | Reuters

Is this a time to buy or a time to buy puts? :smiley: @GorillaNerd

What.The.■■■■ :smiley: If the tariffs were part of some master plan, where is the master plan now when you remove them right away when there’s pain?

“Backs down”???

The market was up strongly yesterday (the day before the announcement) and also today both before and after the announcement of the pause.
It has been clear from the get-go that the goal is balanced trade and tariffs are a means to an end.

Before the President imposed retaliatory tariffs, he asked countries to remove their tariffs. They demurred, so the President imposed retaliatory tariffs.
Reportedly more than 75 countries have now called the White House wanting to parlay.
The notable exception being China which has escalated her tariffs in response to the US retaliatory tariffs.

President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 90-day pause on tariffs on dozens of countries,
but also increased the tariff on China to 125%.

“I have authorized a 90-day PAUSE, and a substantially lowered Reciprocal Tariff during this period,
of 10%, also effective immediately.”

There’s a lot of negotiating to do (75+ countries was to negotiate a solution). The President has taken the retaliatory tariffs off during the negotiations.
It sounds like you’re in the opposite camp and wanted to keep the retaliatory tariffs in place unless and until negotiated solutions are obtained.