WFH definitely is great and preferred to the office, although a hybrid flex situation would be ideal. It’s more the outside of work aspect that is annoying me and seeing friends of mine in the restaurant and service industry who are small business owners basically be forced into bankruptcy apologetically from governors that I think are only listening to one flawed point of view.
Even if you step outside the immediate business impact, just the effect of the resulting stimulus is going to be shouldered by younger generations in a major way. How fcking long have we been subject to shtty infrastructure, a lagging school system and unable to afford public healthcare just for boomers to whip out $3T when their health is threatened?
I mean a million people die a year in car accidents, every life is priceless we should lock everyone inside for the next few years until we perfect AI.
you mean younger rich generations! let me just remind you that msot ppl in the us do not pay what they cost the us government. unless you make north of 75k as a single person and roughly pay around 18k in taxes per person in your household. you dont pay your fair share. so roughly 80% is subsidized by the top 20%.
i think policy is shifting to inflate the debt away. they just started launch 20 year bonds. assumign rates are ■■■■, federal reserve will prolly be the only buyer. everybody in the world who holds any type of dollar is prolly subsidizing us. anyways higher inflation means higher taxes for ppl who have value!
The whole situation feels like a saw in Trumps @ss right now. If he pushes it in it’s gonna hurt and if he takes it out it’s gonna hurt.
Opens up-> Dems are gonna accuse him of not caring about peoples lives and are probably gonna accuse him of killing everyone who dies because of this virus.
Locks down-> The economy gets crushed and dems are gonna accuse him of not doing anything during his presidency (given economy was what Trump was most proud of)
I hate how Taleb is fear mongering on Twitter. This Virus is coming back until we develop immunity or a vaccine is found,he is still trying to sell the lockdown idea as if it was gonna kill the virus once and for all.
Makes me wonder how much gold he has in his portfolio.
I agree with @GorillaNerd and I think you’re missing a key point. As a general statement, the democrats forgot the concept of swing states and electoral college in 2016 and I think they’re about to get burned by it again. Blue collar that can’t work from home want the economy reopened and swing states haven’t really been hit by the epidemic like major portal cities have. To them it’s an overblown left wing thing that’s killing the economy and they view this as just more overriding democratic governors etc trying to overreach on personal liberty to hurt the economy.
It’s very possible that all this is doing is helping the Dem’s win the core Dem states even more (doesn’t matter) and lose key swing states.
I don’t think it’s reasonable to compare a pandemic producing virus with something like car accidents. However, I agree with the spirit of the comparison that these are trade offs and not absolutes.
We still really don’t know a lot, but seems to me as someone who hasn’t followed this closely that R0 is way higher than we thought and CFR is way lower. If that’s the case, then sheltering the weak people seems more reasonable. We would get to herd immunity faster with limited impact.
Unfortunately this has become politicized, so I doubt we’ll approach it in any rational fashion. I just hope it doesn’t blow up and make the process take way longer.
My point about the pandemic vs car accidents is that as a society, we accept other more costly risks as the cost of normal function on an annual basis. Those risks are also truly avoidable by simply sheltering in place. So it seems inconsistent at this stage to wreak further economic havoc without first weighing the cost and benefit and secondly ensuring those actions are consistent with how we as a society function.
I’m not so sure these two things are actually not comparable and its worth considering whether we are simply reacting this way because the novel virus is in fact novel.
it made sense to shut dow nearlier. we didnt know if our mortality rate was goign to be high like spain or low like china. we didnt know if our healthcare system can handle the problem. but at this point, its pretty clear that not many people are dying. that we arent getting even close to 1m. and that we are paying a higher price in human life to continue a shut down.
I believe they are distinct because of the uncertainty of the virus. The amount of car deaths are more or less stationary. We really don’t know, although we have a better idea than a month ago, with what we are dealing with. From what I’ve read, we don’t even know of it’s one strain or multiple. And we are seeing thing like strokes and other non lung related issues.
I’m not saying this is the polio, but my grandmother who had polio has continued to have these polio illnesses pop up throughout her life despite the disease being a thing of another generation. Whenever they occur, she has to go to a special doctor who deals with these flare ups. I only bring this up to show even something like polio has unexpected consequences
Like I said, I haven’t really followed the news closely except reading the statistics and data science conversations, but we don’t even really know much about the key assumptions of our current models. Instead of spending money in the stimulus to get better idea of those numbers to make a rational choice, we are just giving forgivable loans to those who are tight with their loan officer. Without that information, it really does make it hard to judge the risk.
So you’re agreeing with the premise that if it were 1M people a year my point is valid, but it’s the uncertainty that is worth all of this?
We also do have fairly accurate data at this stage on nearly every account. Yes we’re learning more about the disease itself but they have a much better grasp on spread and fatalities.
I should have been more clear. I was mostly responding to the comparison. Based on the data I’ve seen, I don’t think everything should be closed. I do think large events should be closed, especially if they are indoor. I also believe places like gyms should stay closed. But the transmission doesn’t seem to warrant the paranoia in all venues. But still I have pretty broad prior on this and updating will reduce the uncertainty.
i need a girl to ride ride rideeeeeeee
i need a girl to be my wifeeeeeeee
us chose the most painful way to attack covid. if we were going to shutdown. we needed to do a complete 1 for 14 days. this prolonged half assed quarantine is our own fault.
