Yeah lol Tower 4. 6th floor. He’s sharp and a friendly guy. My mom treated him at a Walgreen’s walk-in health clinic also. She was a Nurse Practicioner and he came in with a cold or something one day. She experience the same. Said he was nice.
The cycle is lit and don’t give a shit
I put all my money in Lending Club.
The stock or the notes? Ha ha, the notes may be good - the stock… eh
A word of wisdom my boss once told me when I suggested folks raise cash when I was at Morgan Stanley.
“We don’t get paid to keep people in cash, so try and find something that’s worth buying”
That said, I am a big fan of Saut.
lol but thats more conflict of interest though. those t bills are looking pretty ok at 2%.
Chaps, the British play cricket not baseball 
But yes, it’s a US related question so i’ll accept it…
RJ is a very conservative firm and I think Saut’s collective views mirror that to a certain extent. That being said, when you are taking a 10, 20, 30 year view like they probably are and are also properly hedged for a downside event, which again, RJ probably is, then they aren’t really concerned with a downturn or recession much.
You are right though, gotta recommend SOMETHING to buy
not sure what hedging has to do with. 70%+ of RJ’s revenues are directly related to client investment assets. RJ has no reason to hedge these assets at the firm level. saut is willing to be tactical when there are convincing signs that a market downturn or recession may be coming. these signs don’t really exist right now.
OMG please DONT hedge in the early stages of a Bull market. whats wrong with people?
Wouldn’t that make them nearly analogous?
Anyway, I think there are actually plenty of signs, but people are ignoring them and smart money talking heads who posit otherwise have their own interests in mind at this point. Just my opinion.
“Recognizing risk often starts with understanding when investors are paying it too little heed” - Howard Marks
maybe hedging is the wrong word. hedging usually means a bank is hedging its long book. RJ doesn’t really have a long book (they’d have a very tiny one related to some of the other 30% of the business). RJ’s main business simply holds and advises on client assets. it really doesn’t have a ton of control over those assets. some assets may be discretionary but if they’re not invested as per client wishes, this discretion can be pulled whenever.
Yeah they have a small institutional segment where they run money. The majority of it is Financial Advisors that drive their business. If someone works for them outside of St. Pete corporate office or NYC, it is usually on the retail side from what I remember. I only worked there a year but yeah in theory if clients decided, they could easily switch to Merril Lynch, Wells, etc.
We are in the very early stages of Analyst Forum great recession.
Did you see this one?
six to seven YEARS more, not months…I disagree, but he has a pretty great track record of making calls which includes before I was even a thought. hmm…
yep i agree on secular bull market if we are looking at this at a 100 year chart, we will keep raging on for a long time, we essentialy reached a high 2000 that we did not beat until 2012. can ya believe that?! what are the odds!!! but we do need the typical short term bear market to clean the excess fat to wipe away the weak.
i mean, he’s talking semantics. i don’t think anybody is calling for a multi-decade top a la Japan. if the market falls 20%-50%, i think a lot of people would be disappointed with those losses even if the bull market continues shortly after.
i think a lot of folks are suffering from recency bias. the last 2 crashes were some of the worst in history.
GFC was 2nd worst and 2k blow up was up there.
it s a tough hurdle to overcome especially if you only been investing 10-20 years and witnessed the 2 crashes.
I know it’s difficult to slap a timeline on what that means, but is this in terms of like weeks, months? surely not years…