WSO = arrogance, AF = negativity ????

Water Cooler Careers
#10

@ former trader your views somewhat supports Oliver Wyman’s 14th annual State of the Financial Services Industry report, titled _ "The Financial Crisis of 2015: An Avoidable History _" presented in Davos, Switzerland during the 2011 Annual Meeting of the World Economic Forum.

In this report, (though written in 2011 seems quite conforming to today’s scenario in many ways) they posit that although financial services executives and regulators have worked to design a more stable financial system in the wake of the global financial crisis, they should nonetheless be prepared to consider a variety of adverse scenarios that could create another crisis in the future. The report describes a possible scenario for a future financial crisis. Under this scenario, the risk forced out of the Western banking sector by tougher regulation then flows into the shadow banking sector and into emerging markets, forming bubbles in commodities and related assets. The bursting of these bubbles in turn triggers sovereign debt restructuring in vulnerable, developed markets. The report suggests this is only one of the potentially adverse scenarios financial institutions and regulators could face that should be stress tested in order for industry participants to better manage risks and shape their strategy development.

Though I don’t find his arguments totally confirming with what I think may be the future scenario as presented by him (probably that is why he himself has made his conslusions conditional) it explains plausible reasons which indirectly leads to your conculsion too . You may read it at

http://www.oliverwyman.com/media/OW_EN_FS_Publ_2011_State_of_Financial_Services_2011_US_Web.pdf

So, there will be still be winners , but not only much less than in the past but also wiould highly dependent on "better management of risks and (how the industry participants) shape their strategy of development.

#11

this whole post is trolling right? “Opportunities are plentiful”? “more opportunities than ever” ?

what dream world are you living in?

#12

^ Maybe he’s 23 and he is comparing the opportunities today vs 2008-09. He certainly did not witness the boom years.

#13

No trolling at all, but I would expect nothing less from one of the debbie downers I was referring to.

#14

Yea? how old are you? what’s your background?

#15

27 and I have virtually no background in finance ;)!! I’m not doubting that jobs are not difficult to get right now, but I’m talking more about as a long term career. There’s way more variables involved in my outlook than simply bank layoffs (which could be teller jobs and people still use it as a sign of how terrible finance is right now), IB salary cuts, firms restructuring, et cetera.

I think the main problem is that people come out of school and want to get a high paying job no matter what it is. It’s probably safe to say that the majority of people with wall street jobs can’t stand it but love the money. Nothing wrong with that at all, but they are generally short-sighted and have no real passion for what they do. Therefore, it’s easy to give up or stay in a job you hate and be perpetually pessimistic on work, pay, and well life in general. A lot of these people are highly intelligent and can crunch numbers all day long, but they have trouble putting it all together because they lack the passion to do so.

Because these people are usually intelligent and highly educated, the average guy trying to crack in is dissuaded by just a simple forum post. A great example was a post I saw somewhere on this forum earlier today talking about finance being “an insult to human intelligence”. I’m sure he’s probably a pretty smart fella and may even have a ton of experience, but he obviously has no clue on how important capital allocation is for an economy. Though I hate how everyone loves to reference Steve Jobs, he very well may have lived out his days as a janitor if it were not for skilled capital allocators.

There is a herd mentality in every facet of life. As a result when the economy is soft and you have dunces, perceived as experts, on CNBC predicting an economic collapse and rockstars on forums who have a very narrow expertise telling everyone the good days are over, people will tend to believe them.

Finance always bounces back because it’s the backbone of business and has historically always adjusted with innovation of the broader economy. Everyone is worried because the economy right now and the contraction we’ve seen already. More analytical people may point out how something like 3D printing will completely alter manufacturing companies needs for capital raising, as well as eliminate middlemen type of industries, as a sign of the death of finance. They may be right but I’m fairly certain we would see finance adjust to it. Others who get off to anything Buffett/Munger say, will point out that Charlie Munger believes that finance jobs should be cut down to a fifth of what it is today (in 2011 I believe). People will just accept that as truth because Munger said it without considering how he came to that conclusion. Seldom does someone even consider the positives before they construct their rigid pessimistic view.

There’s a lot of uncertainty right now, but the long run the opportunities have never been better. The Asia growth story has a long way to go and I don’t think that chinese ghost cities, despite how terrible the repercussions may be, will change the long term trajectory very much. What effects will a long term energy revolution have for the economy (and I’m not just talking about the gains we’ve made in the US in the past few years)? I could go on and on but it’s pointless because people won’t look past the present. Basically, my belief is that finance probably isn’t a good option for someone who just wants a high paying job right now, but to people who actually have a deep passion for it and can stick through it will likely do quite well over the long term.

#16

Your future remuneration is highly correlated with the first jobs you get after school. If you start underemployed, the odds are stacked against you to one day become a BSD. Possible but unlikely. Muddle through doesn’t really exist in finance as firms would rather hire a stud from college that they can brainwash than to roll the dice with a 35 year old that has great passion and stuck through it during the bad years.

#17

you should have stopped at “27 and no finance experience”. I’ve sat on the hiring side of the table for years, I’ve done AM, ER, IB. all your random bullcrap is just a lot of preaching. things will turn around in the future, down the line, having passion bullcrap. Don’t even get me started on the passion, I’ve heard passion so many times from so many hot-shots without anything to back it up, it makes me laugh.

If you want to see passion, here’s your passion:

http://wisconsincheesefactory.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/the-only-resume-you-need-to-see.pdf

now listen up, “breaking in” is best done fast. As you get older, your chances diminish at a rapid pace. People don’t hire 30 yr old analyst’s. They hire fresh grads out of school. The fact is, hiring is frozen at a ton of places, layoffs still happening all the time, industry is diminishing, and people are leaving wall street. No one is doubting it will come back someday.

But there’s always a new cycle of people that want in (far more than available jobs). And even if you were willing to get paid at the bottom of the barrel (as new grads get), people still may not hire you for a ton of other reasons. The only thing I’ll give you is finance will over hire and over fire, but getting into finance, is a lot of luck in timing you can’t control.

If you want to pursue a passion in life, go right ahead. No one’s stopping you. But a wise person would assess their realistic chances. I have a passion too, winning the $500M lottery, does that mean I should gamble all my life savings and every dollar I make on tickets?

you tell people ”Opportunities are plentiful”, ”more opportunities than ever” That’s total BS. 2006 was plentiful. Each bulge bracket had 30-40 openings at target schools. Now it’s 2 or 3 per bank, IF that. does that sound plentiful now?

#18

Finance will adjust, of course; the question is whether there will be many people benefitting from that adjustment and can you/me/other AF-ers be part of it.

#19

Respect. Let the haters hate. I’d rather take someone like you versus a 3/3 CFA, Ivy Undergrad, Top 2 MBA, Arrogant prck. Itercom needs to get out more. I know he knows finance, but the guy is a total wetblanket debbie downer asshat to party with.

#20

Is that seriously impressive? Good SAT scores? Selling candy in the lunchroom?

#21

Bump. Anyone have pull at WSO? My registration is still pending…

#22

Really? That’s strange. There are a ton of troll accounts that get approved every day.

#23

I have an account I don’t use. Maybe you can just have that I don’t see myself going on there much anymore if at all.

#24

I told you to read the fine print. Brothers are not welcomed.

#25

^Sigh…

#26

^ Why don’t you pull a Nick Cannon and pretend to be white?

#27

I just looked at this resume and I don’t know what to make of it

http://wisconsincheesefactory.files.wordpress.com/2010/01/the-only-resume-you-need-to-see.pdf

Is this supposed to be an example of misguided “passion”, an example of a horribly arrogant and self-inflated resume, or an example of a winning resume?

#28

The former.

#29

I concur.