where do you guys see it going?
down up down up
up up down down left right left right b a
supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > up up down down left right left right b a +9 Lives!
supersharpshooter Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > up up down down left right left right b a Sounds like a Mortal Kombat move
Ranging between 8000 and 10400 for next 6 months.
mp, are you a BOM?
do you guys think the hedge funds blow-ups are for the most part done? What would trigger more massive liquidations from HF redemptions- how does one even research/analyze this?? I read a BB article about how a certain HF limited redemptions- is that possible?? Them just saying ‘no, you can’t have your money’?
projectplatnyc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > supersharpshooter Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > up up down down left right left right b a > > > Sounds like a Mortal Kombat move I love Contra!
akanska Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > do you guys think the hedge funds blow-ups are for > the most part done? What would trigger more > massive liquidations from HF redemptions- how does > one even research/analyze this?? > > I read a BB article about how a certain HF limited > redemptions- is that possible?? Them just saying > ‘no, you can’t have your money’? I believe, if you read the fine print of some HF, there is a disclosure that states that in case of unusual circumstances, the HF could refuse to redeem for a certain time. I remember reading that somewhere.
Yes they can word a contract on redemptions however they want. I think there will be a wave of year-end redemptions, meaning funds will have to sell through the next couple of months. The question is how much cash these funds are sitting on to meet redemptions already, and if they will really have to sell that much to meet the requests. With that said, I spoke with a HF that is raising new capital now, and suspect that for a % of those dumping shares or forced out there are some that are positioning to buy. The only way I know to look at that info is to talk to the HFs and ask what they are sitting on or positioned, or check a recent 13-f? 13-hr?-something like that.
We bounced from 7800 to 9500 pretty fast. Volatility will continue but will not hit the levels we have seen in the last weeks. Over the next 2 months I think we’ll see a lot of tax loss harvesting which will drag the markets down but not below the 8500 level.
Down. I think the Dow will finish 2008 below 9000 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see it closer to 8000. In his campaign for the white house Obama called out Exxon Mobil by name. If I were an XOM shareholder I would be more than a little bit worried that XOM could become the target of some new and creative taxes.
I think we’ll get a year-end rally to ~10000 on the Dow once Obama start laying down his game plan for the economy (more regulation in the financial sector, fiscal stimulus, accting changes, more re-capitalization of banks) while experience lower but still high volatility (±3-4% a day at an extreme). In the mean-time more bad news come out on the slowing economy and corporate profits takes a big hit dragging down equities once again. Dow bounce between 9000-10000 until the market is clear we have growth. I think we’ll see 10000-11000 on the Dow at year-end 09 if it is reasonable to say the economy is improving otherwise 8000-9000.
Up for a bit… until the euphoria of Obama fades and people realize he isn’t the savior of all; then down to 7.5K.
mpnoonan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > supersharpshooter Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > up up down down left right left right b a > > > +9 Lives! WHAT! That’s +30 lives, NOT +9 lives!
IronMan Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > mp, are you a BOM? what is bom?
Back-Office Monkey. An inappropriate slur here.
Every PPM I have ever read has clauses that allow a HF to suspend redemptions at any time under the premius of “extraordinary market conditions.” Most will do this if investors run for the doors and/or prime brokers call in margin, both due to losses. The majority of fund have their redemptions in hand already. For those with monthly liquidity, they are liquid enough not to work about working out of positions. Those with year-end redemptions typically have 60 or 90 day notice. All those notices are in. The cash gets paid (less a holdback) 10 to 15 days after month end. A lot of fund are either sitting on this cash today or will be raising it slowly before YE.
Mr. T said it best “PAIN.”