58h: currency forwards, which way does the payment go?

So in one example, the investor (myself) wants to use a currency forward contract so that I receive 50,000,000 EUROS in 3 months. Assume

  • _Today, the exchange rate is 1.23 USD for 1 euro, so 50,000,000 euros costs $ 61,500,000 _
  • _3 months from today, the exchange rate becomes 1.25 USD for 1 euro, so 50M euros will cost $62,500,000 _

_1. First off, am I conside_red the long or short on this contract? Or does that terminology only apply when you’re exchanging currency for non-currency assets?

  1. Am I supposed to lose $1 million or gain $1 million in profit?

My initial reaction was that I am entitled to a$1,000,000 profit because the euros I’m receiving are worth more. Then I started thinking that I owe the counterparty $1,000,000 because the Euros cost more. Which is it?

  1. You are long euro and short dollars.

  2. That’s not clear. I’m not sure whether you mean that today’s spot rate is USD1.23/EUR and today’s 3-month forward rate is USD1.25/EUR, or today’s 3-month forward rate is USD1.23/EUR and in three months the spot rate will be USD1.25/EUR, or today’s spot rate is USD1.23/EUR and in three months the spot rate will be USD1.25/EUR. The answer depends on which of those (or, perhaps, something else) you mean.