New target on AAPL - $202. Damn. I got in at 101. Should’ve bought more instead of diversifying. Curse my risk aversion!
Still holding, nice run
hpracing007 - Ya, but what’s the daily var on your portfolio??
Probably not enough to be playing that song haha
so apple is now a trillion dollar co. trading at a 17x multiple, and grew rev this past year by 18%.
the majority of that growth imo is 1 time due to them raising their asp by 15% so imo their real growth rate is prolly 10% to 12%. they cant raise their prices forever and i dont think people are as willing to get their phones in the future. i am personally moving to google’s phones next year. apple’s smaller segments are killing. services and other products growing at north of 30% per year but this is only 20% of rev. imo most of their growth is in their watch and music and mostly from new users, people finally subscribing to music (recurring rev) and people deciding to actually wear a watch now (not as sustainable imo). lol. with that said given the growth rate and multiple, its ok to good value, just not as spectacular as it once was.
good thing u didnt buy it 5 years ago
i bought 6k at 96 
roughly 2 yrs ago. 5 years ago i was too focused on buying first real estate prop. didnt even contribute to 401k yet even.
wow in 5 years from 0 401k to top 1% - even ohai cant comPOUND like dat shizzle
#HeIsOnFireToday #WhereDidNiceIgorGo #BringTheHeat
Haven’t been winning lately, this could turn worse as people start downgrading, crowd starts following, more so. Company generates a lot of cash, margins are great, huge cash balance, still holding.
trades at 18x fcf 19x ni right now. it’s at its 10 year peak multiple. the core business wich is iphone is pretty stable now, and reps about 60% of revenue (in 2015 it was 70%, and in 2009, it was only 10%). there are obviosuly a lot of better cos now, but its prolly better than spy and majority of other cos.
Maybe I’m missing something but I see a FCF of $64,121 mm TTM vs market cap of $921mm (lower now, unfortunately)… 7%, 14.4x and that includes $237 mm in cash
Lol whoops my bad. My data was outdated. Anyways you should use enterprise value. It’s around 15.5x.
EV for free cash flow? I use market cap since fcf is post interest expense.
as a buyer, i think ev to fcf is a better metric, as it makes it look more likely to be expensive hence less likely for you to invest in it.
id be more worried about the size of the debt which is larger and 100% due rather than the interest which is a much smaller amount that can easily change.
just add back after tax interest expense rather than not even look at debt at all.
I keep debt in the back of my mind… maybe not as much as I should in my calcs. Short term rates could skew the fcf margin the way I calc in favor of levered names.
Still holding 
Fell to where it was at the start of the year! I’ve learned my lesson on rebalancing and diversification, tanks.
Where is your conviction bro. What would Ackman think?
I’m still holding so that’s my conviction right there ha. I think the stock is still a good deal for the price despite declining iPhone sales. Huge cash balance, great margins, and generating cash. Warren B is a big holder… I can wait.
but looking back at how big of a portion of my portfolio it was and still is and my reluctance to realize capital gains wasn’t too smart. I did well in stock selections this year with new picks but a poor job in portfolio management. Still up for the year but not nearly as much 2 months ago, sad!