While it’s true that one could get hit by an asteroid and have that be a civilization-ending event (or extinction event), it always struck me that if this was all that likely, why would civilization even exist? For tens of thousands of years we thought that the worst a meteor might do is blast away Sodom and Gommorah. 40 years ago, we conclude that the dinosaurs died out because of an asteroid impact 65 million years ago, and suddenly we are worried that this might happen in our lifetime or perhaps our children’s lifetime??
If it were that likely, it probably would have already destroyed human beings on multiple occasions. So my conclusion is that it is not all that likely.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t worth keeping an eye out for that stuff.
Oh geez, I can’t believe you use this “reasoning”.
Species exist until they don’t. A species that exists can always reason “low-probability high-damage risks, are non-risks because we still exist, and thus they must not be that likely”, but time does not stop, and so eventually these risks do happen, then the species no long exists to reason in this illogical way.
Which explains the fermi paradox.
The Toba eruption, we barely made it. Let’s clarify; it’s near certain, just not high probability in a lifetime, thus reasoning that it doesn’t matter, until one lifetime it does.
Yawn… I never say this can’t happen. I’m 1) saying that this is extremely unlikely to happen in our lifetime, 2) there’s no reason not to research it more and see if there are ways to predict better or mitigate it if it does happen.
At the same time, every time someone sees a NEO and says “OMG it’s coming close to us,” I find myself thinking that we vastly underestimate the number of things that swing near Earth, because we haven’t been very good at detecting them until recently (and arguably still not very good at it). And yet, for all this time that we’ve had recorded history (about 4000-5000 years) and oral histories that perhaps go back as far as 10,000, we haven’t seen one single mass-extinction type asteroid impact, yet we probably have had many thousands of near flybys. Even in the fossil record, the KT extinction was 65 million years ago, so - given that there are about one close flyby per year in the news - means that there have been millions of NEOs passing by without problems. The likelyhood that the one we see next week is going to do us in is still infinitessimal.
Sure, if we wait long enough, will something likely crash into Earth that can be dinosaur-extinction like? Probably. Are we likely to kill ourselves off from other things beforehand (yes, very likely). Will lava flats open up or volcanoes explode. Yeah, probably, but I’d still wager that homo sapiens are more likely to die from firing off nuclear weapons, some biological (constructed or natural) pandemic, or even some grey goo scenario than we are from asteroids.
None of this means “don’t research the stuff,” but it does mean "be skeptical when some guy says “hey, I found an asteroid last month and it’s going to swing by and crash into the earth in 2021, so sell all your AAPL and live it up until then.” I find myself thinking it’s about as reliable as the guys saying that the Rapture is coming on June 21st 2018 (I made that date up, I don’t follow it).
Here’s a question: based on our current ability to detect threatening objects in space, what’s the current 0% risk timeframe? Asked another way, if we were to detect an asteroid large enough to destroy the Earth heading straight for us today , how long would we have to live? Obviously it would depend on the speed the asteroid is going, but let’s assume an average speed.
Okay, I’m fine with that (except for stealing my signature “yawn”).
Then I guess we come back to Asteroid Boy being 1) really spicy hot on this whole asteroid obsession, and 2) not nearly as good at math as he claims. What’s up with you Asteroid Boy? There are logical reasons why we are not taking asteroid risk into account in our AAPL purchases (or perhaps we are, it’s just that since it is 1 in 10,000 lifetimes, it doesn’t have a large impact in our analyses, and it’s not hedgeable risk).
How did a discussion on Apple stock delve into the likelyhood of being struck by an asteroid on the investments forum. Anywho i think its a serious risk and we should sell insurance for it. The great hting is we wont keep any reserves because we will all be dead when it hits
They have ~$250 billion in cash. They have enough cash to turn themselves into a completely new company. Buy below $100. sub-$95 is sweet spot. Invest and never look at your PL until retirement. Same goes with Amazon and Google, both of which need to split FFS.
Bought at $94.18 back in January 2016. Also have a $100 side bet with a friend that it will trading above $110 at the end of this year. Easiest $100 I’ve ever made…
It’s getting close to your target PA… I haven’t sold anything yet but am feeling nervous. Great company but is it a great price? Still holding, the economics are good and we’re at a point where if it dips, there are people who will step in and prop it back up,
