Hi, I have questions concerning active share and active risk, and this is the first example in page 327 Level 3 Book 3.
Manager A, Active Share 0.73, Active risk 2.8%, Number of positions 120
Manager B, Active Share 0.71, Active risk 6.0%, Number of positions 125
Solution: Managers A and B have a similar number of positions and similar Active Share. Manager B has much higher active risk. A high Active Share says only that a manager’s security-level weights are quite different from those of the index. A 0.5% underallocation to one security and a 0.5% over-allocation to another security will have the same impact on Active Share whether these two securities are in the same sector or in different sectors. Given similar levels of Active Share, it is likely that Manager B’s active risk is driven by active decisions at the sector level rather than at the security level. Clearly, they implement very different investment strategies. Although we cannot draw a direct conclusion about the ability of Manager B to outperform Manager A, we can assume that the realized outcomes of Manager B are likely to be much more dispersed about the benchmark (both in positive and negative directions) given the higher level of active risk.
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How could we infer “the realized outcomes of Manager B are likely to be much more dispersed about the benchmark" from the higher level of active risk.
In my view, these 2 managers have similar active share and number of positions, so the higher active risk of Manager B comes from idiosyncratic risks, which means security selection. It’s possible for Manager B to choose any stock, and why “more dispersed about the benchmark"? -
Why “Manager B’s active risk is driven by active decisions at the sector level rather than at the security level”?
I think it’s the opposite.
Thanks.