This year, I’ve been having my 401k/roth go into some low cost growth funds - jlgmx and ladyx, evenly split, so half large cap and half small cap. I initially thought that would be a good idea because growth is supposed to have better returns over the long term and I’m relatively young.
That said, when I look at charts, the returns for these are ■■■■. And they’re both supposed to be good growth funds. JLGMX is up 138% since Dec 31 2010, vs 422% for QQQ. LADYX is up 5% in that time.
I’m thinking I should just transfer all that to QQQ. I can’t actually see any reason why anyone would invest in these growth funds, even if they’re long term investors. The returns are ■■■■ and I don’t see any way to get good exposure to the theoretical returns of growth companies.
Is there realistically any better way to get that exposure for long term investors? Or is it just better to go full QQQ for the long term?
Survivorship bias, my friend. Growth companies that survive do tend to generate higher returns, but not enough to make up for companies that get delisted.
Yea I never buy mutual funds. I just got spy index. I know I had all these grand plans when I quit my job to do all this ■■■■. But I low key got lazy and shoved 300k of 401k into an spy index. I lost a ■■■■ ton of money, I think at the time I was worth 620k. I’m worth roughly 480k now. I’m levered to the tits. 60k cash, 120k debt. I have a wedding next month and a mn mba trip for 4K not to mention tuition of 16k. So as you can imagine I’m sweatin a bit. I’m considering buying call options this month.
Maybe you put your $480k net worth in a SPX structured note and use the monthly coupon to buy calls on futures? Some of these notes are offering like 40-50% protection and 7-6%.
Somebody else’s wedding or are you and Señorita GorillaNerd finally tying the knot, mijo??? 
IDK man, I feel like the markets have a ways more down to go
I figured out that the discrepancy was because the funds were making distributions. So I’m thinking that I may go 50/50 between an sp index and the other half in growth funds, or something similar. Thinking I’ll put most of my take home from my salary through the end of the year into my company’s after tax 401k which should bring me pretty close to the $61k limit for defined contributions for the year. I’ve been not investing until now during the year since valuations seemed way too high historically for me, but I can feel the pains been hitting the markets now and it’s less historically abhorrent so I feel like now’s at least a less shitty time to buy in. It’s still higher than historical norms but not as much. I do still have a couple years worth of pay sitting in a bank account, I’m thinking I may dca in over the coming 6-12 months or so since I feel like the markets are gonna bottom out during that period. Maybe.
The way I look at it. We are 25% down from the peak. So I’m happy with it. If it goes down more, I up my risk profile. Here is my allocation:
-10% net of debt cash position
10% people who owe me money
14% real estate
33% stocks
55% etf
That’s 480k net worth.
Gorilla what’s the over under on a hard recession in 2024, and on a 20%+ correction from here? And is this guy full of crap?
I’d say we are in a recession already. We’ve had two negative gdp growth rates. These idiots are just redefining terms. I missed the boat on buying call options again. Mother fackkkk, I was going do it this month.
Also you stop inflation by increasing rates and slowing down the economy. As people get laid off and credit disappears, inflation will stop lol. I think the fed was slow to raise rates because they knew the last time they did it in 2008. They destroyed the economy. Now they have no choice because of high inflation.
I’ve heard of hedgeye. I’ve seen their reports a few times, but we never subscribed so I can’t really judge. A lot of people think further downside from here. I don’t really care I’m have when it was down 25%. Anything else is icing in the cake.
I wasn’t going to say it, but, damn. That’d been a real quick four bagger.
I don’t understand options. What would that trade have been?
Also this ■■■■ is still hard to move on. On the one hand I have a high level of confidence that the bear markets gonna continue well into 2023 due to housing getting ■■■■■■ in the ass and earnings compression, but on the other hand I known there are real advantages to maxing out my after tax 401k. So I wanna wait for the bottom but also don’t know if it would make more sense over the long term to get in if I could wait for to get an extra 20% or more by getting in closer to the bottom.
I look for the stocks I like with call liquidity and I buy. It would be a leap. So like 2 years. Also you can invest in the account and just keep in cash? Honestly I wouldn’t wait. We’re still down 20% from the peak
At the money options for Friday expiration cost about 44 each. Assuming on Sunday night an at the money call was priced similarly, you’d have stockpiled on another 200 points from today and yesterdays action.
Do you feel like the bottoms been hit?
I don’t think so. But I’m tapped out for cash. I spent 50k in stocks on September 13 when it was down 20%. Currently up 7% vs s&p down 5%. I am 30k liquid. I got wedding bills of 15k and tuition of 15k. Debt of roughly 110k. I’m tapped out lol
