Anyone have any funky pink sheets, bulletin board, or other tiny esoteric stuff (units, rights, misc) they know of that isn’t a total fraud or completely speculative? Not saying you have to own it and love it (or recommend it), just asking what you’ve come across. I love finding these weird ones for my PA, but they’re tough to discover. Figured I’d throw it out there.
United Guardian…not a shoot to the moon name though…
WWE. Seriously. Sound business model. Proven success.
I more mean stuff that doesnt show up on most screeners because financials aren’t either available or reported by data providers. Most of them are junk but every once in a while there’s a real gem. For example, the best one I ever found was a company called Crowley Maritime (CWLM) that traded on the pink sheets, filed financials with the SEC and eventually got taken private. KEWL was another. These things are really tough to find.
PLUS.PK is trading for $12.70. It’s has $7+ in cash, $17 book value, trades at 6x earnings and is growing 5-10% per year (organic). It just got caught up on sec filings and will be relisted soon, at which time it will unleash a massive buyback.
JT Marlin - I probably shouldn’t be telling you about this one
Bluestar Airlines…i apologize
TRLG - True Religion 13x this years earnings. 18% earnings growth. 24% top line. Driven by new store opinions. Promising story that could really benefit from a recovery for discretionaries due to rebate checks. Only reason it is discounted so heavily is the buyside doesnt give the top line growth much credit. I was at the Citi mid/small conference and every investor thought that premium denim is a fade that will be obsolete within 3 years. Anyone who owns premium denim knows that is not true…
Buddha, did the rebate checks help discretionaries last time? I read somewhere that walmart got all the money, not the malls.
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Buddha, did the rebate checks help discretionaries > last time? I read somewhere that walmart got all > the money, not the malls. You may be right, but street numbers for specialty retailers are so low, that any incremental benefit from rebate (as small as it may be) will be free upside.
The street numbers for some I’m looking at are above their 7 year highs. LULU - current est: .73, most they've earned in past, .47 GES - current est. $2.44, most they’ve earned in past, $2 URBN - current est. 1.18, most they've earned in past, .97 Your pick, TRLG, current est. $1.52, most earned in past, $1.21 When I say “most they’ve earned in the past”, I’m looking back over the last cycle and picking their best year… these earnings are about as stable as Nigerian politics, some having very negative years.
virginCFAhooker Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > The street numbers for some I’m looking at are > above their 7 year highs. > > LULU - current est: .73, most they've earned \> in past, .47 > GES - current est. $2.44, most they’ve earned in > past, $2 > URBN - current est. 1.18, most they've earned in \> past, .97 > Your pick, TRLG, current est. $1.52, most earned > in past, $1.21 > > When I say “most they’ve earned in the past”, I’m > looking back over the last cycle and picking their > best year… these earnings are about as stable as > Nigerian politics, some having very negative > years. That’s not the right way to look at it. In general earnings grow, that applies to everything. I was referring to the grow rates, and street estimates for SS comps. Something like TRLG, is going from a 0 store to 10 store now expected to 25 store company, obviously it will grow earnings.
Virgin, when we’re all done with the CFA stuff this year, I’d like to chat more about what you’re doing. It sounds like we are in similar boats and maybe should share strategies and insights. Where are you located?
buddha Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > TRLG - True Religion > 13x this years earnings. 18% earnings growth. 24% > top line. Driven by new store opinions. > Promising story that could really benefit from a > recovery for discretionaries due to rebate > checks. > > Only reason it is discounted so heavily is the > buyside doesnt give the top line growth much > credit. I was at the Citi mid/small conference > and every investor thought that premium denim is a > fade that will be obsolete within 3 years. > > Anyone who owns premium denim knows that is not > true… My GF’s daughter is just crazy about “True Religion” (and brands in general - she, like many pre-teens seems to think “brands make the (wo)man”). Then she showed me another favorite brand “Free People”. I looked at it and saw the tag “Made in China.” I laughed so hard I nearly spewed coffee all over her new shirt!
Yeah… 2 things about what you said. I heard that teenager daughters are a good indicator of future sales and that prices are going up in china for all the cheap mall stuff (i.e. everything) they sell over here. Bchadwick, you can email me at musicslut@yahoo.com, put “analyst forum” big in the subject line or I might miss you. I live in Los Angeles now.
oops
virginCFAhooker, Did you see sales comp numbers today? Yes you can point to a easter shift, or heavy promotion. But net-net expectations were low, and were handily beat. For just about every retailer. (gap, is just really messed up, old navy couldnt sell fresh water in the desert)
Yeah, I’m actually up $1 on my J. Crap short (pun). Now my LULU shorts (pun) are making money. LULU needs to grow like a fiend for 7 years to justify it’s share price. Somehow I think the yoga fad will die or Nike will get a clue before that happens.
I’m not up on retail stuff so this shorting of retailers is new to me but J.Crew products suck and they’re expensive. Plus, their stock is expensive. My wife tells me that people will always buy expensive stuff just because it is expensive… is that why people buy J.Crew, Sbux, Lulu, etc? It makes no sense to me? Do these people just have money to piss away? Why the heck do same store sales matter when earnings and book value are so far out of wack with the share price?
^ Yeah both of those stocks seem to be surprisingly strong and probably headed for some tough times. But personally I have traded out of WMT (did way better than i could have ever imagined) and looking into getting in JWN SKS COH TIF (which all have been weak and may be bottoming IMO). Or maybe I’m just jumping to early. Just curious what do you work in? My firm doenst allow shorting or derivatives. 