When I first started saving for retirement I had about 10% allocated to bonds but that didn’t last long. I’ve been 100% equities for a while now and have since then thought that was easily the best way. Anyone not doing that? Is it risky to not have some % allocated to bonds? What type of bond portfolios do you invest in if any and what do you expect in returns?
If you re-read The Intelligent Investor those allocations were recommended when you could get a reasonable return on your capital with bonds. I doubt Graham would recommend that mix today. It’s difficult to allocate much to bonds when the CBs have made their real returns so negative. I would pay down debt and get a decent risk-free return that way before buying bonds in this market.
The next year or two could be ugly in the bond market as 10-12 years of easing gets unwound.
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My retirement account is 100% equities. I expect to start phasing in bonds when I’m about 10 years out from the big R, but market conditions may change that. As Chad pointed out, the investing environment has changed significantly and will probably continue to do so.
Several people I know have moved from bonds to RE for diversification. Not REITs, but tangible RE such as timberland and rentals. Interest rates are still low enough to make leveraged investments in those reasonable. I just haven’t done it personally because it’s kind of a PITA unless you pay someone else to manage it for you, at which point scale (which I do not have) becomes important.
Have you considered cornering the market on a promising meme coin?
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i’ve been 100% equities on 401k. 10 years and it has 300k. 3 reasonings
- bond market had crap real yields. avg nominal rates should be closer to 5% vs 2% today. assuming avg inflation rates das a negative rate.
- im young so have a really long time horizon. a 50 year horizon even at the worst of times still generates 5% cagr minimum even at the paek of 1929 when we had a 90% drop.
- returns are shared with govt right. so i usually place my risky crap in tax deferred accounts.
but my overall net worth is like this 55% index 20% stocks 15% real estate 10% cash. net of debt. i use cash as my bond allocation. and keep it for liquidity purposes. i think gross cash is 22.5%.
i chose a 10% net cash position. because i think 10% of the time stock market will have less than a 0% return and thats what my cash yields. lol
source: trust me bro
I own TMF as part of my leveraged ETF strategy. The rest in UPRO and constellation software
I don’t understand the premise. Why do you think upro and a growth index are similar?