Beyond Meat?????

Water Cooler Investing
#1

Hi

Beyond meat is up 50% in the last 5 days. I have been keeping my eyes on it but I missed the price surge as I have been rather busy with other stuff.

Is it still worth it to buy at $114? I want to hold it for at least 9 months.

thanks

#2

it loses money every year. so its more of a speculation. whether its 10 dollar, 100 dollars, 1000 dollars. it lost 50 cents per share in last 12 months. but it had it 1st profitable quarter on q3 at 6 cents and their revenues rose like 4x from last year.

investments like this are typically pretty hard. since you have to estimate what stable revenues and margins will be like. but a 7b valuation will prolly need a profit of 350m at a 20x multiple. lets assume a 5% net margin, thats 7b in revenues vs 90m right now.

#3

Yeah the entire value lies in whatever your future assumptions are for this firm and those assumptions vary widely across analysts and are based on total conjecture. Its speculation. Could be a buy, could be a sell, but it is definitely speculation.

#4

it seems to get a bump whenever someone announces plant-based options, like Starbucks did today. Not sure how sustainable/consistent those random price bumps are tho. it’s an infant industry niche still

#5

Damodarin did an interesting analysis on the stock, it’s a year old but I think it’s worth watching if you’re really interested. He had a lot of interesting thoughts. There may be an updated video but I haven’t kept up on it.

[video:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JN6eqkDVgvw]

I don’t really have any opinion on the stock either way.

#6

its a nice take. i dont think he should be dcfing and setting a terminal growth at year 10. this is a growth industry, i can imagine this going for decades. ive been adding a lot of notificatiosn recently on youtube that has prolly drowned out his videos. key and peele is pretty funny.

#7

It’s worth as much as what people want to pay for it… which is to say who has a clue… Everybody who is positioned long is for the very short-term spikes to not miss another Tesla. They either play it directionally for the +/-20% jumps or through options with less than 20 delta calls and puts because of the high vol. Either way, not something I would like to be in, it’s a gamble and it depends on people’s positioning.