Nomination market odds now:
Bernie Sanders: 50%
Bloomberg: 22%
Biden: 13%
Sad!
“ask not what your country can do for you , ask what you can do for your country.”
with that said ^ that dude overrated
Looks like Bernie vs Trump. Sad day for US politics
Bernie over BootyJudge? And mini Mike in 2nd? Nah way.
Pete did great in Iowa, but that was expected - he’s popular in Mid West kind of areas like that. The other candidates are much more popular in coastal areas, or places where a majority of delegates reside. Biden finishing distant 4th was extremely disappointing, however.
I am hopeful of Bloomberg’s upward polling trajectory but admit he is still an outlier. I would not have guessed that his odds were better than Biden’s.
With that being said, those prediction markets do look weird sometimes. They have Trump at about 50% odds for re-election, and have for months. That’s basically saying “no clue”. It is hard to imagine that he does not have a significantly high likelihood to be re-elected.
I just can’t see Bloomberg succeeding here and Biden is looking DOA. At this stage I think it will be Bootyjudge or Sanders, would not surprise me to see DNC pivot off of Biden and throw its weight behind Buttigieg.
Right now, yes, but Trump is walking time bomb. Who knows what he may do in the next six months.
Unless DT is running against Bernie with say someone like Tulsi/Yang in his party, it’ll be DT for another four years. He’s got his base, African Americans are starting to come around with the equal opportunity zones, unemployment, jail reform, and the fact that rappers love(d) him and mexican/latin americas are the most anti-immigration of them all. Bernie is the only candidate (and it’s still a tough battle) that can unseat DT. If PB gets the nomination its game over. Either way, pick up some infrastructure and cannabis stock.
Yes, Trump is volatile, but look - people have waited for over 3 years for something to get him. What makes you think it’s going to happen by November, when he is more sensitive to election, and (face it) his political approach is becoming more refined as he gains experience in office. There’s being realistic with current information, and there’s wishful thinking. Time is running out for a scandal that sticks or for the economy to implode.
This page is hilarious. Talking like there is a chance in hell anyone but Trump could possibly win. It’s going to be a bloodbath. Mark it down.
I’ve noticed even the majority of the lib trolls here and elsewhere have gone from running victory laps to somewhat quiet. I think that reality is setting in for them and they’re running out of things to say. To Ohai’s point, people holding out hope for some mystery bombshell to derail this thing before November are bordering on straight up denial. The other point to consider is that after four years of manufacturing scandals and outrage the net effect of calling wolf has left Trump in a relatively impervious political position.
Oldie but a goody for the Bernie Bros.
I agree that DT is in the pole position but the fact remains his scandals are so numerous it’s bound to have some impact. I mean the last Republican nominee just voted to impeach him on grounds of high crimes and misdemeanors, some chick is demanding a DNA sample, John Bolton of all people has a book coming out basically confirming that DT asked him hold up aid for dirt on Biden, it just goes on and on…
No, you’re wrong. All scandals have bounced off him and have become less effective. Everyone knows Trump is sketchy as F, but have forgiven him or just don’t care. Future scandals now have a much higher bar before they become effective. If Biden and Trump both do the same bad thing, voters will be more lenient to Trump.
I’m being honest here, no BS. This is extreme denial. The effect of these scandals is to solidify and expand his base. I am honestly confused as to how people don’t see this. Outside of NYC, LA, and SF, everyone sees that all these manufactured scandals are nothing more than presidential harassment. Honestly I’m concerned for anyone who has high hopes and confidence that DJT is not re-elected.
What denial we’re talking about a prediction market. I’m just detailing why this particular market has him at him at 50:50. You take away his scandals and his basic craziness those number would probably be closer to 70:30. You think the wisdom of the crowds it wrong – knock yourself out and make a bet.
I’m all in on DJT!
Yeah, Ohai nailed it, you’re clinging to a liberal delusion. Libs through everything they could manufacture at him and now his approval is at personal best levels, at this point it’s become noise and just makes the left look worse.
Bringing up Romney who Trump openly emasculated in the last election is not saying much of anything.
Prediction market is one indication, but it is thinly traded, the numbers do not respond to news in the case of Trump, and the market is an “I don’t know” market (50/50). Keep in mind that prediction markets also showed a sub 10% chance for Trump to win in 2016. Most people would say these markets are skewed and unreliable at best.
People need to stop pretending that everything bad in the world is due to Donald Trump and start addressing their own denial and bias so they can face issues productively, if you ask me.
US politics are going fully insane. Trump and the backlash against Trump are set to make for an even uglier year than 2016. Plus, now Trump has carte blanche to solicit foreign aid (at least, unless and until the Dems win 2/3 of the senate, which is pretty doggone unlikely). This election is going to be wild