^ you are taking one side of the argumentt to the extreme. Obviously someone who has 0 everything is at higher risk. the argument above is mostly about how well prepared is effective enough. After all, 1 lottery ticket has “much better” odds than 0 tickets.
I do think the motorcycle argument isn’t too bad. When cars are indeed gridlocked, a bike can usually make it’s way through.
A dirt bike would be the perfect vehicle if you can travel light. You could go anywhere and they dont use a ton of gas. You dont need to bring a ton of sh1t with u right away besides an AR or AK with a bunch of ammo. There would be plenty of stuff to scavange if you are mobile.
It would help to have a huge ammo stockpile somewhere though. Its hard to find any ammo now…
No, you see thats where you are wrong, whether its back country skiing, camping, preparing for an apocolapyse or pullling a tough guy tuesday act on the internet you over intellectualize everything.
For some reason you have deluded yourself into thinking that you can can prepare for and use your analytical skills to essentially hedge the risk inherent in high risk situations. The reality is all you need to do is fuck up once, to get unlucky or for some random unforeseen event to happen and you are done. Whats the probability of that not happening? effectively none. Your screen name is Black Swan, this is something you should be acutely aware of.
The reality is that unless your lack of humility and ego is just an act, it is pretty much guaranted that you will find this out the hard way.
So then what’s your point? That low probability high impact events exist? In what way would you say that changes anything that’s been talked about previously in this discussion? Because it seems to me that you’re not making any consistant point and not even your’e sure what you’re trying to say.
I do think I can hedge risk a great deal. I routinely kayak lethal rapids that would kill an inexperienced boater. But I live, because I’ve hedged the risks through prep and skill, and thought. Does that eliminate risk (which seems to be what you’re confusing this with)? No. But I never claimed it does. Just because you’re not able to completely eliminate risk, doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bother to try to at least mitigate it.
Are you suggesting that having robust prepartions for a low frequency high impact event is a waste (this seems contrary to your point), or that there’s always some risk (your point being ?). I don’t see how your first comment and latest really have any relevent link or impact to the discussion.
Well for starters, you have a point about SF traffic. But I don’t live there, I live in a much smaller more removed city (pittsburgh). I also have a motorcycle (not a crotch rocket) that I think I could still get through about any gridlock with. A gun in a secluded backcountry location isn’t nearly that bad of a defense since your odds of even being discovered are pretty slim.
One big stink with preppers is they take years prepping to live six months longer during the apocalypse than the rest of us. When I say preppers, I don’t mean preparing, I mean straight drilling and canning food on the daily type stuff. Buying some land and guns in a precautionary fashion is cool, but prepping for a decade like the peeps on that tv show, just to live an extra five months is stupid. I don’t know if this was mentioned, but the movie and book a The Road is probably the most realistic apocolypse movie ever… a must see
^ I saw THe Road. Good movie, although no replay value.
In a true apocalyse, you definitely need a sustainable LT solution for food and water, I agree with that. ALthough it there was something like a nuclear holocaust, I’m not sure I want to be the only living thing alive anyway
^^ Arthur Clarke’s "Childhood’s End’… the last human on earth could have left with the aliens, but he chose to stay and record the ending for the aliens and then died…