It was a unique situation where global indices had already crashed, but China A-shares were just off prior highs. But cmon, contagion—if the West stops buying, CN demand will get hit. So only a bit off the highs I sold everything, take the gains, pay taxes. Screw it, did that in Q4 2007 too. Sometimes it’s time to pull the trigger, buy it back later and lower.
This is going to be BIG DAMAGE for months, at least. The U.S. financial system is vastly weaker than people realize. The Fed with their emergency rate cut to zero and QE4 signal that. They don’t have control of this ship anymore, and they know it. Govt is going to frantically and desperately throw everything they have at it.
I say S&P500 to 2000 (41% decline to 15X “as reported” P/E), but 1500 is possible. Trump is finished. And it will be years of repair, like Obama era “everything is fine folks” before they can prop the system back up.
so you plan to deploy 100% to stocks at S&P 2000? i always found it silly that people go in an out. markets are based off probabailities so it should be a weighted portfolio… IMO given where 10 yr interest rates are. any guy with a 10 year horizon should be 90% equities., and 10% cash. I’d normally say bonds, but bonds are ■■■■. how you goinng buy a 10 yr with a rate of 0.7% while government policy is to inflate by 2%. its bananas
I know the feeling. I was flipping homes from 2002-2006 and as soon as I got wind of a housing crisis on the coasts I was like, cmon, contagion. So I liquidated all my properties netting a tidy sum even after taxes. Then I just happened to be sitting on tons of cash when the market crashed. I figured this time was different. Wait. Wait until March 9th. Then I bought out of the money calls on 3x long etfs. I mean, looking back, that was great timing and some serious smarts by me. What? No, I don’t have any proof I did any of those things. What’s going to happen next? I’ll give you a detailed account of how my positions performed after things have settled. Now if you’ll excuse me, Meredith Whitney is on line 2.
Such a beta move. Back in December, I knew the nasty CCP was up to no good when I heard of their cover-up schemes. I levered my portfolio 5x and went all in to DWT.
Come back when you have some real alpha moves to show.
Also, China’s debt has mushroomed over past decade! Do the math analysts, the end is nigh!
I got one of these buddies as well. Talking with him would serve as weekly comedy if I didn’t find him so aggravating. In February, when corona started getting more headlines, he said it’s a small blip and won’t affect stocks one bit. Yesterday he told me that he saw this stuff coming back in January and went all cash. Same thing back in 2015 when the Swiss franc jumped 30% in one day. That was blatantly obvious to him weeks before.
covid is what killed earnings. the fall in earnings is what kills companies. and when companies die, many people will be out of work. its very sad. it is extremely bad policy to prolong this. it is literally the worst thing they can do. id rather die from a cough than die form starvation.
