What is this paragraph trying to imply exactly ?
Could someone please explain this in simple terms
In interpreting historical prices and returns over a given sample period, the analyst needs to evaluate whether asset prices reflected the possibility of a very negative event that did not materialize during the period. This phenomenon is often referred to as the “peso problem.” Looking backward, we are likely to underestimate ex ante risk and overestimate ex ante anticipated returns. The key point is that high ex post returns that reflect fears of adverse events that did not materialize provide a poor estimate of ex ante expected returns.