http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/7cae38c2-e811-11e3-b923-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3ChOXzGdK
I think the number is even lower, when you consider all the people that start studying the material and then chicken out when it comes time to slam down the 1000 dollars to enroll for level 1. Then you have to consider that of the people that actually commit funds, 20 to 25% aren’t even showing up on exam day!
Odds of passing all three should be around nine percent, given approximate pass rates of 40% L1, 45% L2, and 50% L3. I guess the odds are increased by taking the same level multiple times, but then again some pass L1 and never try L2.
i doubt that many people do that, since the study material is only available to actual candidates and because enrollment fees rise throughout the year: you’re more like to have people who rush to subscribe in september and realize 6 months later that they lack the necessary motivation.
Does not make sense to take those people (assuming they exist) into account. Computing success rate on people who don’t enroll? Seriously???
But you’re right to mention that the pass rate does not include people who don’t show up.
Is there a figure on percentage of those that pass on first tries?
I think only a figure on pass rates for each exam…
I think your 9% is wrong. You can’t take L2 before L1 so they aren’t indepedent.
they don’t have to be based on how he’s calculating them
For a different perspective, supporting the 9.0% eventual LIII Charter pass rate, just look at the CFA numbers themselves –
What you see here is that, cumulatively from the beginning of the program, 1,997,397 people have taken all levels of the exam and 179,288 (cumulatively) people have passed Level III: an 8.976% pass rate.
If you look only at 2013, the last year for which full data on both the June and December tests are available, you will note that 163,835 people took all levels of the exam and only 12,607 people passed level III: a 7.695% pass rate. While of course the LIII pass rate doesn’t depend in any statistical sense on the number of people who are taking levels I and II (who were not eligible therefore to “pass” LIII), this analysis does have the simple virture of looking at input vs. output. Long term, historically, it would seem that the program spits out less than 10% new CFAs every year based upon the number of those who take the exam, confirming yet again just how hard this beast is and the accomplishment of anyone who makes it through all levels.
Very interesting. Though the 1,997,397 number is the number of test-taking sessions, not the number of people; anyone who passed all three levels is counted at least three times. The real number we need is the number of L3 passers divided by the number of first-time L1 takers.
In theory, the 9% should be the odds of passing all three levels on the first try; the odds of, say, passing L1 if you took it five times should be 1 - (0.6 ^ 5) or about 92%. Of course, it’s not really about odds as much as studying really hard.
^ kind of agree