Hello,
I am having a debate with a friend regarding two approaches to hedge a portfolio with index futures, I found some academic references for each approach. I would like to see what you guys think from an application point, and maybe a theoretical point if you have a reference.
My portfolio=1000 USD invested in the index
index level=100
index one year future=110
How many contracts do I need to hedge again risk of a decrease?
1000/100=10
1000/110=9.09
To me it seems 10 contracts would lock me in to have a total holdings worth 1100 in one year. 9.09 actual can leave me with a little variation as per my excel simulation
index level at expirary 10.00 9.09 80 1,100.00 1,072.73 90 1,100.00 1,081.82 100 1,100.00 1,090.91 110 1,100.00 1,100.00 120 1,100.00 1,109.09 130 1,100.00 1,118.18 140 1,100.00 1,127.27 150 1,100.00 1,136.36 160 1,100.00 1,145.45 170 1,100.00 1,154.55 180 1,100.00 1,163.64 190 1,100.00 1,172.73 200 1,100.00 1,181.82
My friend has an argument about me double counting dividends using my way, I am not seeing the argument yet. I rather lock in 1100 for my portfolio rather than an unknown amount, and in both cases I do not know what divis I will get.
Thank for those who answer.