The IHME model is predicting the peak of this virus to be around mid-April, obviously, assuming there is some truth to that I wanted to ask your thoughts on a few things:
How likely is a recurrence?
When do you really think it is gonna die down?
Impacts on hiring/layoffs
they are just making their best guess, social distancing actually prolongs the peak. so if everyone is practicing social distancing it should take far longer than april. its important to remmeber the type of social distancing we are doing is pretty laxed and nothing like china. china can easily experience a resurgence until a vaccine is available as they killed it off completely through strict quarantines and not because their immune system is any betters. ours is to infect everyone at an agreeable pace and make sure we have the necessary equipment for the ones who do get sick. eventually majority of us will have the proper immune system. old people though will still need to be careful as the chances of them dying are high so they must wait for a vaccine. the best candidate is prolly aorund march 2021. there are some earlier ones but they are not too promising as they are not american.
What about the effect on the economy?
Lol,
I have an offer that is set to start around August in NYC,I am worried it will get cancelled due to the economy getting fvucked.
lol its a crapshoot. the longer it takes the cases peak the worse it will be economy wise. corona will definitely be handled by march 2021 throug ha vaccine though. the larger issue is that there is a lot of debt out there and if companies go bankrupt, then there is no way this will be a v shaped recovery. the 2 trillion stimulus package is big for a 20 trillion economy that is expected to shut down until june though. so i am thinking we’ll be allright.in terms of the market, i think we will be heading down again at some point. i just dont believe we hit the bottom in a month.