^you should stick that prediction in Wikipedia.
ymc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > Hi budfox, I am expecting 1000 deaths at end of > July. Can you ask your wife if this is an > overestimation??? Are you a doctor? A medical researcher? This is completely baseless! You just pulled a number out of thin air after reading a stale report. Unbelievable. The disease of Marcus Phoenix and KJH is spreading through this forum. More completely mindless posts everyday.
joemontana Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ymc Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > Hi budfox, I am expecting 1000 deaths at end of > > July. Can you ask your wife if this is an > > overestimation??? > > > Are you a doctor? A medical researcher? This is > completely baseless! You just pulled a number out > of thin air after reading a stale report. > Unbelievable. > > The disease of Marcus Phoenix and KJH is spreading > through this forum. More completely mindless > posts everyday. I was extrapolating the growth rate with a discount such that it can be more conservative.
budfox427 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > it will become a panic IF there are reports that > the ERs are slammed and there are no free > ventilators (if you get swine flu in most cases > you have to be put on a ventilator for a while). > I doubt it gets this far. In most cases if you get swine flu you do not end up on a ventilator. In most cases you probably think you have a bad cold or a mild flu, take some paracetamol, a couple of days off work and that’s it. If you are really worried about how it will affect North America in the coming months, it may be wise to look at Australia & New Zealand and see how they get on during their winter.
I’m not saying its not a concern- I just think ymc’s analysis is ludicrous. The # of deaths might very well climb into 4 digits, but if its based on further geographical reach that doesn’t make it any more concerning. I’m one who has always been frustrated by peoples lack of logic and reason when it comes to interpreting statistics. I’m no health professional but here are my points: 1. If a flu that has spread to half the globe kills a cumulative 1k over the course of a couple months I’d think it was less severe than a disease killing 100 in California over the same time; reason being the POTENTIAL it would have. 2. To see how great an effect it would have I’d start in the area it began- ie MEXICO. According to this chart (from CDC) Mexico has seen decreasing cases and deaths- so the idea that the illness has an exponentially growing effect in an already exposed population is defunct based on this admitting incomplete analysis. http://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/preview/mmwrhtml/figures/m817a1f1.gif Furthermore Meico is just about as good as it can get for transmission- not most hygienic, densely populated, increadible dependent on public transportation systems… thats all I’m saying
132 now at wiki. It is still growing at 9%/day Mexico did close school and business for a week but we are business as usual. No wonder we now are the undisputed first… 