So far about 120 swine flu deaths in the US. It is likely that in the next two months, the number will reach 1000. Do you think there will be a panic then to cause a collapse in the US economy? Or do you think only 10000 can do that?
Apparently inluenza kills approximately 36,000 people per year in the USA. Most of those are old and infirm. I think for the swine flu to cause panic it needs to raise the death toll amongst the old significantly above the usual rate or start killing young adults in large numbers. How do you put a number on that? Maybe 20,000 extra oldies or 5,000 young un’s? Who knows really, but if the number of swine flu related deaths stays around the 1,000 level then I don’t think people will alter their behaviour much.
But one thing that sets swine flu apart from normal flu is that the majority of deaths are >5 and <65 group. I think another thing that can cause panic is when the ERs are swarmed with people due to very high infected numbers. Many people can’t get treated and they start panicking.
aging kills ~150,000/year worldwide cancer kills like ~500,000/year in the USA heart disease, slight more, I think swine flu probably isn’t that important, relatively, with only tens or low hundreds of deaths
well, the difference is flu can transmit while aging, cancer, heart disease can’t AIDS can transmit, that’s why we are wearing condoms. 
I’d say the chances of swine flu causing a collapse in the US economy are pretty miniscule.
By the way, that 36k number is just an academic guess. Not a hard number like that 40k deaths from car accidents Why not? SARS had a big impact on Hong Kong economy.
ymc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > By the way, that 36k number is just an academic > guess. Not a hard number like that 40k deaths from > car accidents > > Why not? SARS had a big impact on Hong Kong > economy. Stop seeking validation. Just short the market for crap sake. You don’t need us to hold your hand.
The panic will happen when Americans become stupid enough to believe that a death rate of .00004% of the US population is alarming.
death rate is 0.4% according to Science http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/short/324/5934/1557 I am thinking about shorting somewhere in July. 
ymc Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > So far about 120 swine flu deaths in the US. It is > likely that in the next two months, the number > will reach 1000. Do you think there will be a > panic then to cause a collapse in the US economy? > Or do you think only 10000 can do that? Where did you get your data? Are you just making up numbers? CDC says 87 deaths http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm
it will become a panic IF there are reports that the ERs are slammed and there are no free ventilators (if you get swine flu in most cases you have to be put on a ventilator for a while). I doubt it gets this far.
87 deaths, whoopdiedoo. I am sure more people die each year of accidental aspirin overdose or tylenol o/d. H1n1 has a treatment I believe. I thought I read a story of someone getting it and receiving two doses of Tamiflu, she was all better after that.
cfa_actuary Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > ymc Wrote: > -------------------------------------------------- > ----- > > So far about 120 swine flu deaths in the US. It > is > > likely that in the next two months, the number > > will reach 1000. Do you think there will be a > > panic then to cause a collapse in the US > economy? > > Or do you think only 10000 can do that? > > > Where did you get your data? Are you just making > up numbers? From wikipedia CDC numbers are updated only every Friday. > > CDC says 87 deaths > http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/update.htm
gimme a break- its been 23 weeks- so common flu kills 20k/year. Thats ~370 a week. Your article is a little dated- originally published in Science Express on 11 May 2009. It also notes “judging its pandemic potential is difficult with limited data”. Now time has passed and its clearly not anywhere near causing chaos.
trek7000 Wrote: ------------------------------------------------------- > 87 deaths, whoopdiedoo. I am sure more people die > each year of accidental aspirin overdose or > tylenol o/d. > H1n1 has a treatment I believe. I thought I read > a story of someone getting it and receiving two > doses of Tamiflu, she was all better after that. The deaths are growing exponentially. The previous CDC update was 44 deaths
does this look exponential to you?? http://www.nyc.gov/html/doh/images/cd/h1n1-hosp-adm-ed-large.jpg http://www.phac-aspc.gc.ca/alert-alerte/swine-porcine/images/f1_20090601-eng.gif yeah- world and US numbers because it is still spreading GEOGRAPHICALLY but areas that have been hit for a while are not.
my wife is an infectious disease specialist. the truth of the matter is that the seriousness of the issue is definitly higher than akanska is making it out to be, but way lower than ymc. yes, lots of people die from the regular flu every year. the reason MORE dont die is because most people get flu shots, which controls the spread of the flu. this COULD become a problem if it starts showing up in major cities at a much higher rate than it is right now. the odds of this are low. there you have it.
there’s a reason why its a pandemic. it is serious and if it becomes deadly it will destroy the economy. i had it, lasted 2 weeks without treatment, it takes you down pretty hard. i’ve never been sick and not been able to move before, kinda scary, but that part only lasted 1.5 days. note: death rate is calculated from the number of people who are sick with it, not the number of people in the population. so 0.4% is correct. and it does kill mostly healthy people and that is why its scary. you could be walking down the street, a healthy 30 year old, and be dead in 2 days from something you thought was no threat to you. i bet you the regular flu has directly killed less people aged 15-45 than this flu has so far this year. the threat, like in 1918, is that a second strain comes around in the fall and has a death rate of somewhere near 10% of the working population. this flu is almost identical to 1918 in all ways. timing, symptoms… you don’t want this flu, i can still feel it in my lungs 3 weeks later and i got the tame summer version.
Hi budfox, I am expecting 1000 deaths at end of July. Can you ask your wife if this is an overestimation???