Probably I am missing smth.
Converting the cash flow receipts in foreign currency to domestic currency via swaps the acquired x-rate and the x-rate stated by CIRP is different. I will try to illustrate it via example. Let’s say. US firm that wishes to convert its quaterly future cash flows (first cash flow happening in 3 month) of EUR 1 million to USD upon receipts. The current x-rate is 0.8 EUR/USD. and swap rate is 4.8% for US and 5% for Europe. To form the currency swap that doesn’t reqiure change of NP only quaterly interest,we calculate hypotetical NP in Euros.
NP(EUR)= 1million/(0.05/4)=80 million EUR Given the current x-rate 0.8 EUR/USD 80 million EUR=100 million USD and the interest on 100 million USD is 100million*(0.048/4)=1.2 million USD. From the established swap 1million EURs will be excahnged for 1.2 million USD quaterly. which implies x-rate of 0.833 EUR/USD.
Given CIRP the forward x-rate for 3 month is EUR/USD 0.8* (1+0.05/4)/(1+0.048/4) = 0.8004 EUR/USD
Does it mean there is arbitrage opportunity?
Would appreciate if smbd could explain me where I am doing mistake.