Does a lower interest rate volatility imply falling interest rates?
No.
Rates might be at 20% and stable.
Ick.
My Kaplan Quicksheet says, “When interest rate volatility increases: Value of call option increases, Value of Put Option increases, Value of callable bond decreases, Value of Putable bond increases.”
Optionality to a call or a put increases in value, but wouldn’t the value of a putable bond decrease too?
Is Kaplan viewing their opinions solely through the eyes of the bond holder and not the issuer?
Since the value of the putable bond = value of straight bond + value of put, the value of the putable bond will increase as the value of the put increases. I tend to have to write out these relationships several times until they really start to click.
Why does the value of a putable bond increase while the value of a callable bond decreases when interest rate volatility increases?
Could it not be the reverse with an increase in interest rate volatility? I just envision rates going from 8% down to 7%, up to 9%, etc. etc.
If rates are going to bounce around and I’m an issuer, not a holder of a callable bond, I would view that call provision as valuable.
I remember back in the 80s when people were getting mortgages @ 20% and higher!!!
So does the term “interest rate volatility” only apply to upward movements and not downward?
Um . . . no.
Standard deviation of continuously compounded returns. Ups and downs.
Okay, that makes perfect sense. Now, why does the value of a putable bond increase while the value of a callable bond decreases when interest rate volatility increases?
If rates are going to bounce around and I’m an issuer, not a holder of a callable bond, I would view that call provision as valuable. I would call the bonds when rates move lower during the said “volatility”.
My Kaplan Quicksheet says, “When interest rate volatility increases: Value of call option increases, Value of Put Option increases, Value of callable bond decreases, Value of Putable bond increases.”
There is very simple explanation
Value of Puttable Bond = Value of Simple Bond PLUS Value of Embedded Put Option
Value of Callable Bond = Value of Simple Bond MINUS Value of Embedded Call Option
When interest rate volatility increases the value of both options increases too. Value of Callable Bond decreases then.
Increase in vol , increases value of long option
If you owna putable bond you have
Bought a bond and are LONG a put option
if you own a callable bind you have
Bought a bond and are SHORT a call option
You have to take the perspective of the investor, not the issuer.
Owning a callable bond in a volatile scenario increases the chances of it being called away from me, so it’s worth less. Conversely, owning a putable bond gives me the optionality to put it back to the issuer, making it worth more for me.