Leading Recession indicators

Guys,

Thoughts on when we’ll see a recession? It looks like a recession is imminent.

The narrative seems to have shifted.
Of late we had been getting very good jobs numbers (which were quietly revised downwards later) which showed how strong the Biden economy is.
All of a sudden, Fed Head Powell is talking about a September 2024 rate cut (which will juice the economy just before the election) and there’s been a worse than expected jobs number
Dow closes nearly 500 points lower Thursday as investors’ recession fears awaken

Over in the UK, there’s a new left-wing government and the BoE cut rates for the first time since 2020 less than a month after the new government took office.

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I’m hearing people on the news say not to worry about the dip, as it’s quite natural. However, I also hear others saying that something broke and it was the carry trade that caused it. I think the market has reacted accordingly. I have no idea how these tech firms are racking up massive profits when Middle America is struggling with inflation. Is the middle class living off credit card debt? I saw a graph today showing that credit card debt has reached all-time highs.

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